35 years ago, on the eve of 1984, the canadian newspaper the Star, impressed prescient a dystopia of George Orwell’s “1984”, asked the famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov to write an article forecast that, in his opinion, will happen to mankind in 2019.
The year was not chosen by chance. Orwell’s masterpiece was published in 1949 — 35 years before described by the writer of the period. Reporters seemed curious to find out how our world will change even after 35 years, says “Lifehacker”.
Now is the moment when you can see how true was the prophecy Asimov.
What came to pass
From the point of view Asimov, humanity is on the way to 2019, the ninth year was to disturb the three most important thoughts:
The likelihood of nuclear war.
The use of outer space.
Regarding the first point, in a time when Asimov was asked to predict the future, the world was in suspense because of the cold war, when relations between the two superpowers — the USSR and the USA reached a boiling point. The world was on the brink of disaster, however, the futurist still prefer to remain optimistic.
“If the United States and the Soviet Union will continue to cling to each other is quite useless to discuss what will life be like in 2019. In this case, only a few of us, our children and grandchildren will live, and I do not see sense to describe the global suffering. So let’s assume that nuclear war will not” — said the writer.
Computerization Asimov also predicted surprisingly accurately, although in the early 1980-ies in the mass development of this sector, few believed. And fiction have made of his prophecy a number of additional insights, which are now also true. If you touch this topic in more detail, that’s what happens.
1. Mass computerization
Her Asimov firmly called inevitable. In his opinion, by 2019, the ninth year the society reaches a level where it simply can not exist without computers, to be used in economy and industry, and in every home.
“Those countries which lag behind in this respect, will suffer so obvious that their governments themselves will require computerization as it is today they require weapons”, — said Azimov.
Clearly this prophecy has come true: today the PC is in almost every house, even in third world countries.
2. The disappearance of some professions
This fact, from the point of view Asimov, is an inevitable consequence of computerization. But not everyone is happy.
“Before the industrial revolution the vast majority of humanity were engaged in agriculture and related service works. When industrialization started, the transition from farm to factory was quick and painful. With the computerization of the transition from factory to something new will be faster and, as a consequence, even more painful,” predicted the writer.
It’s not even that computers take people’s jobs. Just eliminate the need for a number of professions: any bureaucracy, any Assembly, any mechanical repetitive work will be automated. They begin to run and manage the robots, and will do so more quickly and successfully.
Prediction also came true: to 2019 already died a number of professions, such as telephone operators and stenographers and 2020 is expected, the disappearance from the market of dozens of other specialties. Moreover, as predicted by Asimov, it is connected exactly with the automation and development of computer control systems.
3. Changing concepts of education
The advent of computers and associated changes in the labour market, according to the writer, will require fundamental changes in the approach to school (and further) education. First of all, it must be computerized. If before the industrialization of man could live contentedly, not being literate, in 2019 it will be impossible without the ability to handle computers and to navigate in the new high-tech world.
The futurist predicted the disappearance of the teachers. Them by 2019 it can replace the computers and the children will receive education at home — not at the standard school curriculum, and at their own pace and in accordance with their own interests.
In General, this prediction can also be considered if not fulfilled, then actively self-fulfilling. Principles of upbringing and education of children have changed dramatically, with more and more parents prefer the so-called distance learning online schools.
4. Growing problems with the environment
“The consequences of human irresponsibility from the point of view of waste and pollution over time will become increasingly obvious and intolerable. Attempts to deal with this will become more intense. It is hoped that by 2019, the progress in technology will provide us tools that will help to reverse the deterioration of the ecology,” Asimov predicted.
The first half of this prediction, obviously, came true: environmental problems in the world is really growing. But the second, unfortunately, something appeared to be wrong: modern scientists have been unable to offer a way out of this crisis.
That didn’t come true but may yet come true
There are other moments in which human society is progressing more slowly than expected insightful fiction. Here they are.
1. Robots in every home
Asimov as the author of the laws of robotics on the eve of 1984, he was sure: “Mobile computerized object, it — the robot had already entered the industry. In the next generation it will penetrate every house.”
So far this has not happened. Unless, of course, are not considered fully “mobile computerized objects” robot vacuum cleaners, smart coffee machines and kettles with access to the Internet.
2. Successful space exploration
By 2019, according to forecasts, Asimov, mankind with new forces return to the moon and even create there are huge manned station, the staff will be to extract minerals and produce one of the construction materials needed for the construction of other objects in space. Science fiction also involves the launch of global production (this would reduce pollution on the planet) and the creation of huge space stations to collect solar energy and transfer it to the Ground.
But it seems that something went wrong.
3. Peace in the world
The need to address social, educational, environmental and space issues, on which depends the existence of our civilization should force humanity to unite.
“Will increase cooperation between Nations and groups within Nations — not because of the sudden growth of idealism or integrity, but because of the cold-blooded awareness: lack of cooperation means death for everyone,” predicted a writer.
So believed Asimov, predicting even the creation of a semblance of world government. Alas, in this issue of the legendary science fiction again proved to be too optimistic.