Joe Biden will win the US presidential election with a probability of 91% (9 out of 10 chance), whereas the current us leader Donald trump has only 8% chance of being re-elected (1 of 10). About it writes “New Time”.
About this as of July 27 shows a predictive model of the Economist, which is updated daily. It takes into account not only the data of sociological surveys, economic and demographic situation in certain States of the USA. The model is developed with the participation of Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanni, experts in the field of statistical modeling and political science from Columbia University. The Economist applies this method for the first time to calculate the result of the election in 2020 in the United States as a whole and separately in each of the States. The log describes in detail how the model works and even provides the opportunity to see its code.
What will be the result of the presidential election in the United States 2020 — detailed forecast
Model The Economist predicts that the Democrat Joe Biden with a probability of 99% will gather most of the votes of American voters (more than 19 chances out of 20). The current President of the United States Donald trump is less than 1% chance to win the most sympathy of the voters (less than 1 in 20).
However, as we know, the American model of presidential elections does not guarantee victory to the candidate with the maximum votes (Hillary Clinton in 2016, supported by almost 3 million more than trump’s, but she lost the election) — is crucial to the distribution of votes in the electoral College.
According to the forecast of The Economist, in 2020, Biden has a chance to win this competition: the journal estimates that it will collect 250-415 electoral votes (to win you must score 270), while trump is about 123-288 votes. Thus, the next President of the United States, most likely, it will be Biden (91% probability of 9 or 10), while trump is much lower chance (8% or 1 out of 10).
At present, if elections were held on 26 July, Biden would have scored 346 electoral votes, while trump — 192, according to calculations of the magazine.
The model also gives an idea of how the distribution of electoral votes by state. Most likely, predicts The Economist, Biden wins in 25 States, trump is 20, and the result of the vote in 5 States remains unpredictable (North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa). For “doubtful” States, for the victory which I can still fight each of the candidates and the Outlook include Texas (more likely trump will win) and Florida (more likely to win to Biden).
Almost certain (probability 99%) Biden wins in California, Oregon, Illinois, Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut, new Jersey, Delaware, new York, Maryland, Rhode island and in Washington state, and Washington (DC).
Trump is likely to win in Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South and North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho.
In addition, the model averages The Economist opinion polls, adjusting them with the necessary adjustments for other factors (the difference in sample size, etc.) to provide for the allocation of votes on election day.
According to this forecast, Biden eventually collect 53.9% of the votes of the Americans (now would gather 54,2%), and tramp — 46,1% (now — 45,8%).
Before the voting day to be held on 3 November 2020 is less than 100 days.
In recent weeks between the trump and Biden — formed electoral abyss. The current head of the White house are ready to vote 40% of the electorate, while his opponent — 55%, show recent surveys.
Despite the fact that the data given by various sociological services, are slightly different, seven of the last nine polls show that former us Vice-President Biden is ahead of trump by 10 or more points.
The current gap between the candidates for the top post in the USA is very significant — the last time these were recorded during the presidential race of 1992.