A fight between two CAQ-QS? Not so fast…

A fight between two CAQ-QS? Not so fast...< /p> UPDATE DAY

Since the bucolic outbreak of the caquist campaign in front of the Montmorency Falls, François Legault sometimes seems to be on the verge of boredom. As if he wasn't quite on his “x”.

At Face-à-Face TVA, his often tense face even betrayed a certain annoyance. On more sensitive subjects such as immigration, we also saw him sticking to his notes.

And what about the confusion surrounding the growing saga of the 3rd link?

Could this be the effect of a too predictable victory for the CAQ, doubled in addition to an opposition fragmented as ever?

Only one unknown remains. Which of the four opposition leaders will or will not succeed in uniting the non-caquist vote? Not to dislodge the CAQ — that would be mission impossible — but to at least oppose it with a certain counter-power.

At the end of the week, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, leader of Québec solidaire, decreed that the lucky one was him. From now on, he said, the fight would even be downright two-sided between QS and the CAQ.

The federalist-sovereignist axis being evacuated, the fight would therefore be between the progressive left of QS and the center right of the CAQ. A scenario worthy of a good western.

In response, the outgoing Prime Minister hastened to approve. “Realism” of the CAQ, according to him, will oppose “ orange taxes ” solidarity.

However, it is not enough to order something for it to materialize by magic.

The only real fight for two

For now, the only real two-way battle is between QS and Dominique Anglade's Liberals for second place.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's PQ and the PLQ may be on the brink of precipice, but nothing yet says that the latter, supported by his anglophone and allophone base, will lose his official opposition status.

The proclamation of a titanic battle between Messrs. Legault and Nadeau-Dubois is not new, however. As early as last year, the Prime Minister pointed to the leader of QS — his perfect opposite in all things — as his main adversary.

Mr. Legault had done so to further marginalize the PQ and the QLP. After all, ending the federalist-sovereignist axis was the ultimate motivation behind the creation of the CAQ.

Brilliant, but unthreatening

François Legault also chose GND because he knows very well that unless there is a revolution, QS is unlikely to one day take power from him. Mr. Nadeau-Dubois is a brilliant and tough opponent, but in the long run, he is not very threatening.

In short, by presenting GND as his great opponent, Mr. Legault is already investing in view of the 2026 elections.

For the moment at least, the needles, including the voting intentions for QS, are however not moving much. Without threatening his victory, they backed off a bit for the CAQ.

On a mutually tactical level, it is therefore not surprising to see François Legault and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois proclaim themselves more than never the only two gladiators in the arena.

It remains to be seen whether, Thursday evening, at the last leaders' debate broadcast on Radio-Canada, Dominique Anglade, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the leader of the Conservatives, Éric Duhaime, will still be able to take their place.

And whether or not François Legault will have fallen back on his  x .

A fight between two CAQ-QS? Not so fast...