Ukrainian analyst, Institute for the future Daniel Monin said that the Ukrainian economy is only now beginning to fall, and we have not yet felt the impact of coronaries.
As the Wave passes, he said this in an interview with political scientist, chief editor of the portal “Hvilya” Yuri Romanenko in the air “Hvilya”.
“I am extremely unconcerned about the state and Finance and the state’s ability to Fund its obligations. At the same time, I’m extremely skeptical of the effects of coronaries and the fact that this crisis will be even. Only now the economy is beginning to fall, we have not felt the impact of this crisis on the entire economy. Though of course the sensation of falling violent will be 100%, so in this case there is a dual property that we have now. After in March, there was such panic and Sarasate shouted, let’s all get out of bonds, abruptly everyone started to buy foreign currency, the rate has fallen. Now we see that according to the NBU, in April, the national Bank bought the reserve to approximately $ 600 million, after two billion in principle in March, almost burned. But I believe that they were doing well, the panic was necessary to extinguish and, in principle, reserve abound and they fulfilled their task”, says Monin.
According to him, in April, the NBU has bought 600 million ago and the exchange rate began to strengthen. At this point in may the same trend – national Bank only last week bought $ 160 million. He noted that we see from the apparent macro stability, which allows you like the state to say, we overcame the panic.
“But on the other hand, this report came out prior, we see that the economy in the first quarter of coronavirus is not actually captured. That is, the economy fell previously 1.5% of GDP, and in fact the second quarter will be 100% strictly failure. The NBU, for example, changed his forecast to fall in the second quarter to 11% of GDP. I think that may be more in principle”, – said the expert.
According to him, we have a very severely affected trade, and the stability actually supported the restrictive actions of the state. Monin noted that according to statistics of the NBU in April of interbank transactions fell by about 30%. “What can you say? But since shopping malls are closed and it is in principle the place that sells imports, of course import just frozen. Statistics show that fees for import payments in the budget in April was only at 77% from last year, not to mention the fact that the economy seems to be growing, so there should be more. And moreover, the rate in April was higher than it is now. We can talk about the 25% drop in imports and a 25% fall in exports, seems only interbank market. Very much suffers from the field of all services it is actually fully government is limited.”