All-time heat record coming this weekend?

Historic heat record coming this weekend?

UPDATE DAY

Montreal could beat its “absolute record” temperature on Saturday for the month of November, while Quebec has been experiencing an exceptionally hot period since the end of October. < /p>

“We will be 10 to 15°C above normal for the season from Friday, explains André Monette, head of the meteorology service for MétéoMédia. Usually, at the beginning of November, temperatures are around 9°C during the day and 1°C at night in southern Quebec, and between 7°C during the day and -1°C at night in the center of the province. p>

According to forecasts by Environment Canada and MétéoMédia, temperatures should however fluctuate between 17 and 23°C between Thursday and Sunday. The mercury could even climb to 23°C on Saturday in Montreal.

“There is a possibility of breaking the historic heat record for the month of November, underlines Jean-Philippe Bégin, meteorologist at Environment Canada. We had reached 22.4°C in 2020, the maximum ever recorded.”

Several other heat records “are at risk of being broken across Quebec, particularly from Friday to Sunday,” adds MétéoMédia.

Exceptional heat

After near summer temperatures at the end of October, the province is experiencing a new period of mild weather in early November.

“It is an exceptional sequence, without however being unique, specifies André Monette. In 2020, southern Quebec experienced temperatures between 18 and 22°C from November 5 to 11.”

For Jean-Philippe Bégin, these two successive periods of heat in October and November could potentially represent a historical event.

“As of next week, climatologists will analyze the data to find out if there is a comparable in the past, explains the meteorologist. Then we'll know if it's unheard of or not.”

Warm South Winds

Experts say temperatures well above normal for the season may have a scientific explanation.

“Over the next few days, the eastern part of the continent will have a strong ridge that will bring a heat rush from of the Gulf of Mexico,” says Monette. We had the same phenomenon from October 21 to 26, which is repeating itself in November.”

We have outbreaks of cold air in the west , which creates a deformation of the jet stream, says Jean-Philippe Bégin. The jet stream rises for the east of the continent, which means that the mild temperatures of the United States take up all the space in Quebec.”

If they agree to recognize the unusual nature of the current temperatures, the experts believe, however, that it is still too early to link them to global warming.

“Part of that could be attributable to climate change, recognizes Mr. Bégin. But it would be necessary to prove that these phenomena occur more often to identify a trend.