Chinese coronavirus can infect 60% of the world population, if you leave it “without control”, — such conclusion was made by a leading epidemiologist Gabriel Leung on the basis of the proposed “frequency of attacks” of the virus, writes Business Insider.
Dr Leung said that “60% of the population of the planet is an awfully big number.” The evaluation was based on the rate at which infected people transmit it. According to the expert, the statistics may amount to 2.5 per one infected.
Leung, an expert on SARS, who had led the response of Hong Kong to the outbreak of swine flu in 2009, spoke with The Guardian on the way to the global scientific forum, convened by the world health organization about the outbreak of coronavirus.
He said his priority for the meeting who will be to call for an urgent assessment of what deterrence in China worked and whether other affected countries to use them.
9 Feb who Director-General Dr tedros adhanom Ghebreysus tweeted that the prevalence of infection outside of China may be accelerated, adding that a relatively small number of cases may be the “tip of the iceberg.”
In an article published in the New York Times February 10, Leung outlined the questions that epidemiologists, experts in public health, policy, and sponsors research in the field of health planned to ask at the meeting who.
“The magnitude, scope and speed of this coronavirus, known as 2019-ncov, is too big a problem for any team,” he wrote.
Leung added: “We have to be clear about what the infection, and close the gaps in our understanding of the disease, to make decisions in the field of public health that affect hundreds of millions of lives.”
Researchers from the London school of hygiene and tropical medicine recently estimated that the virus can reach high in mid-February and infect about 500,000 people in Wuhan, China, where it originated.
In his article Leung said that scientists have to deal with the “clinical iceberg”, or the number of undetected cases. Some people with coronavirus reported that they had only mild symptoms or did not show any signs of illness during the two weeks.
“Out of sight is the fraction of the moderately infected people with mild symptoms or no symptoms, the infection of which no one knows,” — he wrote.
However, he warned that to calculate this in such a fast-growing outbreak is not as easy as it seems.
“The challenge was to try to quantify how many infections were actually prevented by such measures as wearing masks, school closures and the closure of cities,” wrote Leung.
In a report published in The Lancet on January 31, Leung and his colleagues said that the authorities should be ready to accept “substantial” and immediate measures to prevent “self-sustaining outbreaks” of the virus in the cities outside of China.