An outcome difficult to predict

A difficult outcome to predict

DAY

It's been a little over eight months since Russia invaded Ukraine with the official intention of “denazifying the country”, according to Vladimir Putin, but above all to appropriate its territories and drive them away of Western influence.  

But while the Russian president has made some gains over the months, his progress is dwindling and his strength seems to be running out, as winter approaches. On the side of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, we are trying by all means to keep the remaining territories. 

An outcome difficult to predict

An outcome difficult to predict

How long will this last this war ? How will this end? Was such a long conflict possible?

The Journal asked its experts to get wet on these delicate questions concerning what is considered to be the greatest war Europe since the Second World War. 

Talks in the spring?

For Washington-based journalist Richard Latendresse, assigned to cover international news, it was clear that the Russian invasion would come up against a strong resistance, thus stretching the conflict. 

“Even if we gave the Ukrainians the losers because of a rather modest army, I suspected that the Westerners were going to tear their shirts and support them if the Russians, massed on the border, crossed the course”, he explains.  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy, October 26.

Mr. Latendresse believes, however, that the Kremlin's motivation could dwindle in the coming months, if it does not make major gains. Meanwhile, Western aid to Ukraine is also likely to dwindle if Republicans win a majority in Congress in midterm elections in the United States on November 8. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin , Thursday

“In my opinion, we have at least enough for the winter. But I expect that the will to make progress diplomatically, on both sides, will be present in March-April,” he believes. 

Richard Latendresse

A short-term defeat

“What made me first astonished, it was to see the scale of the Russian attack, then the continued support of the West for Ukraine for so long, “said the columnist of the Journaland history teacher at Cégep Garneau, Luc Laliberté

We wouldn't be where we are today if Europe and the United States hadn't maintained their support and supplies to Volodymyr's troops Zelensky, he says. On the other hand, Russia's means are increasingly limited: it is no longer progressing at all on Ukrainian territory. Mr. Laliberté also foresees an imminent defeat for President Poutine.

This eldest was examining the interior of her burnt home following a Russian strike yesterday in Bakhmout.

“In my opinion, they will content themselves with stabilizing their fortified castle in the Donbass to try to save these positions. But there is also the possibility that Putin will be overthrown,” he explains.

“Not all his generals were buying into his strategy, he may be playing his last maps,” adds Mr. Laliberté.

Luc Laliberté

An endless war

If he had foreseen that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia would continue, it was rather a guerrilla-type war scenario, as we see in Afghanistan, that the political scientist had in mind and columnist Loïc Tassé. 

“But we quickly saw that the Russian army, although more imposing, was particularly incompetent, ill-equipped and demoralized. We have also underestimated the moral value of the conflict, ”he says. 

This man was clearing debris from a destroyed building in Moshchun yesterday.

Optimistic in favor of the Ukrainians, Mr. Tassé does not see the end of this conflict for a few years. He believes that Vladimir Putin will eventually focus on strengthening his positions in the southeastern territories conquered so far. 

“Donbass and Crimea are certainly not finished in the short term…unless Europe and the United States let go of Ukraine or the Russian president is overthrown”, specifies the political scientist. < /p>

Loïc Tassé

The nuclear threat

Du According to the specialist in military news, Normand Lester, the Ukrainian resistance against the powerful Russian army was a real surprise. It was expected that Putin's troops would steamroller in a quick war that would have forced President Zelensky to flee the country. 

“I overestimated the Russians' organizational and command capabilities, not to mention the US military intelligence that supported the Ukrainians. I never would have imagined that it would last,” he admits. 

An outcome is nevertheless likely next spring, after hard fighting during the winter, according to him. And while he has trouble predicting what will end the conflict, he believes “it's going to end badly for the Russians” one way or another. “Their military force has been completely devastated and the Ukrainians will not give anything away. But there is always the danger that, caught in his corner, Putin decides to employ tactical nuclear weapons”, he underlines. 

Normand Lester

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