The consequences of the pandemic in the fashion industry for the economy of Ukraine can be more serious than military aggression of Russia.
This writes the UBR, citing the words of experts.
According to the analyst of the Institute of socio-economic transformation Vyacheslav Cherkashin, the loss of the Ukrainian economy will depend on the duration distribution COVID-19 and measures to combat it. He believes that economic sector may suffer even more than from military attack of the Russian Federation.
“There is a basic (optimistic) scenario — minus 5%, and the negative scenario — minus 9-10% of GDP. The first is the analogue of the beginning of the aggression of the Russian Federation (2014), the second recession in 2015. 2014 — a moderate growth of the dollar, the beginning of a round of inflation and rising prices. 2015 inflation of a 50% leap in prices, rising taxes, life completely for money from external creditors. I’m more inclined to the negative option,” said Cherkashin.
According to the head of the analytical Department of the ICU group Alexander Martynenko, the costs of dealing with the economic crisis will be determined by successful actions of the Ukrainian leadership and its ability to attract external financial assistance.
He said that the greatest losses are expected in the service sector, which accounted for about 50% of Ukraine’s GDP.
According to forecasts, the Executive Director of the Independent Association of banks of Elena Korobkova, due to the economic crisis will fall in the chemical and mining industry, construction industry and metallurgy.
Experts believe that economic development may have a more negative impact than the spread of the coronavirus. According to their forecasts, the economic recovery will take years.