If Russia will not hinder the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19, its GDP would decline by about 11 %, and in the time of the peak of the economic crisis in the first quarter of next year — 14 %.
On it informs RBC referring to the forecast of the international consulting company McKinsey & Company.
According to the forecast, this year Russia’s GDP in the optimistic course of the pandemic coronavirus decrease of 3.8 %, under pessimistic — 10.2 %.
In case of successful containment COVID-19 Russia’s economy will return to levels before the financial crisis in the middle of next year. In the negative results of pandemic return the economy to pre-crisis levels will go until mid-2023.
Experts believe that the greatest crisis affect investment and consumer demand. In the optimistic scenario the rate of decline of investment will amount to 2.1 trillion. RUB, in the pessimistic and 3.9.
As for consumption, experts predict a decrease from 4.9 to 10.5 trillion. RUB
Similar predictions about the change in the GDP of Russia was published by the German Ratings Agency Scope. It has provided basic (3.3 percent), stress (8.8 %) and the worst (11,3 %) scenario of the fall of the Russian economy.