The average annual exchange rate of hryvnia to the dollar by the end of 2020 will be recorded at the level of UAH 25.4/USD.
This is evidenced by the forecasts of the respondents to the RBC-Ukraine analysts.
In favor of the stability of the hryvnia is the fact that the demand from foreigners in the Ukrainian government bonds remains high. This can keep the national currency at a very strong position against the dollar, says analyst at Alpari Maxim Parkhomenko.
“This trend hinders the NBU due to the printing of the hryvnia. The regulator has to balance between the current rate and rising inflation in the future,” — said the expert.
However, in his opinion, a stable hryvnia exchange rate and reducing discount rate to 10% will allow to increase lending and speed up the economy in 2020.
The head of the analytical Department at Eavex Capital Dmytro Churin believes that the foreign exchange market in 2019 sprang a real surprise, and such a significant strengthening of the hryvnia against the dollar was not expected. And, as noted by the analyst, the nature of financial markets is that the trend movement for currency pairs are very strong, so guess the “point of reversal” is almost impossible.
“If to consider purely fundamental factors that you must take into account maintaining a negative balance of payments, which will sooner or later begin to “push” on the national currency rate,” warns Churin.
Recall, the official dollar rate against the hryvnia, which is daily set by the national Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decreased in January-December 2019 at 14.5%. According to the NBU, the rate decreased from 27.69 UAH/USD on 29 December 2018 to 23.69 UAH/USD on December 28, 2019. The rate declined during most months, and the average annual value was 25,85 USD/dollar, despite the fact that in 2018 the average annual value of 27.20 UAH/USD.