Called budget execution risks-2020

Implementation of the plan on the part of the state budget revenues in 2020 appear to be tense, however, there are potentially significant expansion. This is stated in the “Inflation report” (February 2020) the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

Названы риски выполнения бюджета-2020

As noted in the report, the approved budget parameters for the year 2020 is assumed to be fairly moderate growth of both revenues and expenditures budget (roughly 10% compared to actual values, 2019), and the size of the deficit in relation to GDP does not change and corresponds to obligations to the IMF.

According to the NBU, restrained income growth in 2020 due to lower non-tax revenues compared to actual values 2019.

“However, the increase in tax revenues (15.9%) is assessed as sufficiently ambitious. It is associated with risks of the macroeconomic forecast underpinning the budget, given the stronger hryvnia and low inflation in 2020”, — the document says.

At the same time, according to the NBU, a powerful compensator income can be over-enumeration from the NJSC “Naftogaz of Ukraine” (in the form of tax and dividend payments). An additional source of income payment at the end of 2019 compensation of PJSC “Gazprom” pursuant to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration.

“In addition, probably due to savings on servicing foreign currency debt and the expenditures for the purchase of goods and services (imports) due to a stronger rate of spending will grow more slowly than planned. Also, given the lower cost of natural gas and the associated tariffs for heating and hot water, compared with assumptions, savings in the costs of providing benefits and subsidies to population for payment of housing and communal services”, — noted in the NBU.