Epidemiologist: quarantine stretches the pandemic in time, but will not reduce the number of infected

While the authorities of large cities in the United States and around the world impose stringent measures to combat the spread of coronavirus, experts in public health have warned that couple of weeks of self-isolation will not solve the problem. According to them, people should be prepared for a further tightening of restrictions and the introduction of new prohibitions in the fight against a dangerous virus. This writes the “Voice of America”.

Эпидемиолог: карантин растягивает пандемию во времени, но не снизит число заразившихся

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Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist with the school of public health at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore (MD), explained that these restrictions are an attempt to buy time for the overloaded public health system.

“We are trying to reduce the number of people who get sick at the same time. Essentially, this means that it stretches the epidemic at the time,” she said, adding that this approach ensures fewer infections, but rather allows to manage the load on medical infrastructure.

However, despite all these efforts, Nuzzo expects that in the coming days the situation becomes much more serious.

“We don’t have much extra capacity, says Nuzzo, there are Not enough doctors and nurses, insufficient personal protective equipment, we are now seeing a shortage of important medical devices such as ventilators. So this is a really difficult situation.”

According to Nuzzo, scientists and health workers long before the crisis, expressed concern about the lack of capacity of the American system of health care.

In 2019, Nuzzo has led the development of a Global safety index in health care, a joint project of the Johns Hopkins University, non-profit organization “Initiative on nuclear threat” and analysts from the Economist Intelligence Unit. Even then, the researchers warned about the shortcomings of the existing system, with possible outbreak of infectious disease. But even such professionals as Nuzzo, did not foresee the extent of the problem.

“The situation in which we find ourselves in the United States where we can’t expand the scope of testing, I did not expect, — says Nuzzo, Is it something that we have been able to cope during previous pandemics and epidemics, and so I didn’t expect it to be such a daunting task, as it now appears”.

The response to the epidemic around the world has led to various results, but Nuzzo warns that no country, regardless of its level of development, is not immune from the devastating impact on the health system due to sudden spread of infections.

“I don’t think there is any health care system, able to cope with a huge increase in the number of critically ill patients, as is the case now in Italy,” says Nuzzo.

With regard to the successes achieved by some countries of Nuzzo believes that these results have led other factors.

“A very high proportion of cases in Italy occur in people who we know are at increased risk of complications and death, are the elderly, she says. — Other countries such as South Korea and Singapore that have achieved slightly greater success in their struggle with flash, may also have an advantage due to the fact that the majority of disease occurred in younger people.”

Nuzzo said that, in her opinion, the problem is not solved even for China, where authorities said Wednesday that, for the first time since the outbreak of the coronavirus in the country has not been fixed new cases of transmission of the virus.

Currently the Chinese government begins to lift restrictions in Wuhan, allowing the citizens gradually return to economic activity. Nuzzo welcomed this development, saying that she hoped that the return of industrial production in China will reduce the shortage of medical equipment in the United States.

“China is an important producer of major medical devices, such as personal protective equipment. So we really need to go back to work. But this raises the question of whether to increase the transmission of the virus after they return to work.”

According to Nuzzo, the final response to the coronavirus will be the vaccine, but this can only happen in a few years.

“If all of science will work on this issue, and after all clinical trials we will find a vaccine that may be safe and effective, it will probably take about 12 – 18 months,” says Nuzzo.

“However, she adds, — we still will need to produce, and this will require special tools and, you know, increasing the resources that can even now not to exist.”

“Therefore, I expect that a number of vaccines at the required level will take some time after the outbreak. Maybe it will happen in the years ahead,” added Nocco.

Meanwhile, scientists are working to develop drugs and therapies to help treat this disease.

The global mortality rate from coronavirus while it is impossible to quantify, but, according to Nuzzo, this information can be gleaned from the available information. According to her, for the most part of the world, “this disease is more deadly than the flu.”

Nuzzo believes that measures such as locking and isolation that control the spread of the virus are of great importance in the fight against the spread of infections. Where possible, it is recommended to control stress and anxiety through exercise in the open air: this will make the insulation more manageable.

Commenting on a new study conducted by the National institutes of health, which States that the coronavirus can remain viable and infectious in through the air for several hours, Nuzzo emphasizes that the risk of Contracting the virus from breathing did not.

In the study, she said, was used for aerosol dispersion of virus in the air in the form of droplets through which the pathogen remained viable for several hours.

According to her, people can’t highlight something, like spray — drops of saliva, appears when you cough or sneeze, is too heavy and immediately fall to the ground so they cannot float in the air, infecting other people for hours.

As reported ForumDaily:

  • A new virus was discovered in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. In 2020 it covers all continents except Antarctica. On 11 March, the President of the United States Donald trump has imposed a ban on the entry of the EU. The ban came into force on Friday, March 13, and will last at least 30 days. In particular, it will affect people visiting the Schengen area for the last 14 days.
  • March 13, trump introduced in the United States, a nationwide state of emergency due to the coronavirus.
  • March 11, the who declared the situation with coronavirus pandemic, covering more than 110 countries. With symptoms COVID-19 caused by a coronavirus, can be found here.
  • The virologist’s advice on how to protect themselves from infection — the link.
  • Using the panic in the society because of the epidemic, the scammers have come up with several schemes to get victims ‘ personal data and money. The most common ones can be found here.
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  • All the news about the coronavirus please refer to our special projects.


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