Ukraine’s real GDP in 2020 will decrease by 4.5%, if after the may holidays, quarantine measures are completely canceled and the activity is restored. If this does not happen, then the next month quarantine will add 2.5 percentage point drop.
This was stated by the head of analytical Department of investment company Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy, reports Interfax-Ukraine.
“It is difficult to assess how long the quarantine, but I suggest the following formula: base scenario — minus 4.5%, plus every month minus 2.5 p. p. That is, if the quarantine will last until mid-June, we will get minus 7%,” said Parashchiy during the online seminar Cbonds Congress on Thursday.
According to his forecast, the average annual rate will be 27.5 UAH/$1 by improving foreign trade balance and money transfers “guest workers” who annually transfer to Ukraine of some $12 billion, He noted that this year’s transfers “guest workers” will be less as many of them have lost their jobs and returned to Ukraine.
In addition, important factors that may affect the course, pará called “switching on the printing press of the NBU” and other articles in the financial account of Ukraine. According to the analyst, that “the machine will turn on”, indicates the government forecast an inflation rate of 11%.
As explained by an analyst that the source of financing of about 150 billion UAH of the state budget deficit currently remains uncertain. In his opinion, the state will try to avoid equity financing may come in the market of Eurobonds in the autumn, while improving the environment. If not, you will have to negotiate with state banks and national Bank that decided to participate in the financing of about 100 billion UAH directly or indirectly, said para.