Gradual economic recovery expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than before the crisis, and the decline in real GDP could take place by 5.9% in the current year.
About it reports Institute for economic research and political consultations in the study “Macroeconomic forecast Ukraine — Coronaries” in April 2020, reports UKRINFORM.
“We expect that the economy will greatly suffer from internal constraints and external demand. Gradual economic recovery expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than before the crisis. We forecast a decline in real GDP of 5.9% in 2020”, — the document says.
Experts say: consumer inflation is projected to rise only 7.5% in December, as weak demand will limit the impact of high inflation expectations and the depreciation of the hryvnia.
Institute for economic research and policy consulting noted that the forecast was prepared in very variable conditions and on the basis of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. Experts also suggest that most of the restrictions on economic activity will be canceled until the end of the second quarter.
As indicated in the analysis for the forecast calculation used the average exchange rate of the hryvnia in 2020 at the level of UAH 28,7 per U.S. dollar.
Prepared by the Institute for economic research and policy consulting, Macroeconomic forecast of Ukraine, as noted, “is of informational nature.”
Institute for economic research and policy consulting — an independent Ukrainian think tank that specializiruetsya on economic analysis and the formulation of recommendations, development of civil society in Ukraine. The institution cooperates with the government in the process of defining the priority directions and mechanisms of reforms.