The international rating Agency Fitch,” provides a positive forecast for growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2020.
About it writes “Interfax-Ukraine”.
The Agency predicts an increase in GDP growth compared with the 2019 year from 3.2% to 3.5% this year and to 3.8% in 2021 in connection with investment and private consumption.
The Agency noted in its statement on March 6 that the revised law on the sale of land could have a positive impact on economic growth in connection with increasing demand for loans under the agricultural sector and increased consumption in connection with the sale of land. But also noted the fact that restrictions on the participation of foreign investors in the sale of land can greatly affect the potential investments in this regard.
Fitch notes in its statement that prospects depend on timely and adequate implementation of reforms in the sectors of anti-corruption, customs, taxation and law enforcement.
“As with other emerging markets, the downside risks to growth prospects have increased because of the uncertainty of the impact COVID-19 on global growth and commodity prices,” say Fitch.
According to the Agency, many factors will have an impact on the depreciation of the hryvnia in 2020 compared to 2019, some of them are — reduction of the inflow of nonresidents in government bonds, a wide deficit on the current account, the cycle of easing the NBU discount rate and the growth of global uncertainty. Will also remain the need for external financing due to the still high public debt and payments. External payments of the government and the NBU in respect of the amortization of the debt will rise to $5.0 billion in 2020 and $4.8 billion in 2021 (of which poprobovala $2.4 billion).
The Agency also predicted the likely changes in inflation for 2020 and 2021 and 4.6% and 5.3%, respectively.
Added that fiscal risks in the current year related to weaker revenue growth due to strong hryvnia, which was not budgeted originally, the impact also have lower incomes from privatization, and also stated Denis Megalam increased social spending, the size of which is not yet known. At the same time, the Agency stated that received from Gazprom’s $ 2.9 billion will help alleviate the government’s revenue and ensure space for covering the expenditure responsibilities within useplanning budget 2020.