Forecasts of deaths from coronavirus rising, but the States weaken quarantine

Model of development of the situation with coronavirus, which often uses the White house currently predicts that 134 000 people will die from Covid-19 in the United States, almost twice the previous forecast. This writes CNN.

Прогнозы смертности от коронавируса растут, но штаты ослабляют карантин

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The model obtained from the Institute of metrics and evaluation of state of health at the University of Washington, predicted the new 72 433 deaths.

Similarly, the model of administration trump predicts growth in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus in the coming weeks up to 1 000 daily deaths in the US by 1 June. According to the Johns Hopkins University, last week in the United States are killed every day by about 2000 people.

A sharp increase in mortality in these two models is associated with weakened social distancing. States across the country — including Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina — loosened restrictions in an attempt to revive the collapsing economy and to calm the restless people.

“I think the challenge for us all is to find out what is the trajectory of the weakening of social distancing in a measured pace, which will protect us from significant growth or even a full-scale revival of the pandemic,” said Dr. Christopher Murray.

The projections make it clear that the lifting of the quarantine is associated with a fatal risk.

“It’s a simple logic, said senior medical correspondent for CNN Elizabeth Cohen. — If people resolve to go to bars and restaurants — the numbers will grow.”

According to the CDC, the incubation period of the novel coronavirus — or the time from exposure to onset of symptoms — ranges from two to 14 days, and the virus may even spread among people who have no symptoms. Because widespread testing remains limited, the effects of easing of the quarantine may not appear for several weeks.

Ali Mokdad, Professor of science of health at IHME, said that there are “several reasons” for the increase in forecasts of mortality.

He said that numerous variables affect infection — such as heat and density of the population — but “the most important one is mobility”.

Right now, he said, “we are seeing the growth of mobility, which unfortunately leads to an increase in mortality in the United States.”

According to the Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus has killed more than 68,000 people in the United States and has infected more than 1 180 000 people.

The US President Donald trump has previously stated that the expected death of 65,000 Americans, but he later revised the number of victims up to 80 000-90 000. This may not be the latest revision in the upward direction.

Dr. Deborah birx, the employee of the task force on coronavirus in the White house, said that, according to forecasts from 100 000 to 240 000 deaths, even in conditions of social distancing.

Some California beaches, shops can re-open

California Governor Gavin Newsom has fallen out of favor because some beaches were closed.

Two beach cities in southern California — Dana point and Huntington beach — voted to file a lawsuit against the decree of the Governor, temporarily close all the beaches in orange County.

Newsome also said that two other cities Laguna beach and San Clemente — can access beaches, but on a limited basis.

According to him, law enforcement officers in these areas was “outstanding plan” for opening the beaches.

Other announcements about the opening of the beaches can go in the coming days, he said.

On Monday, the Governor also said that some stores in California will be allowed to open at the end of the week.

The mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garcetti thinks the city will open not earlier than may 15.

The mayor of San Francisco, London and Brit said they may need more time to open the business, not to undo the progress made in relation Covid-19.

“We are now talking about new rules for restaurants and talking about the new rules for gyms and other places, but can we definitely say that these businesses will be open may 8 — no, we can’t,” said Britt, adding that she doesn’t want San Francisco back to the top.

Other discoveries throughout the United States

Among other discoveries, which began on Monday, may 4:

In Colorado , the offices can be opened by 50% with the other recommendations, including a distance of 6 feet (1.8 m) between desktops and heavy cleaning. However, the state encourages enterprises to allow remote work when possible.

Florida begins the first stage of opening. This phase allows for non-urgent operations, and restaurants are open for meals in the open air at a distance of 6 feet (1.8 m) between the tables and seated in a room with a capacity of 25%. Shops may open at 25%. Other businesses, including bars, gyms and Barber shops will remain closed.

In Nebraska, most of the churches, salons and restaurants can be reopened.

In Vermont Governor Phil Scott expects thousands of people will return to work after the order, which will allow them to work, but with new safety regulations. Manufacturing, construction and distribution companies can work with 10 or less employees.

The duration of isolation also expired on may 4 in Kansas and West Virginia.

Even in newly discovered States officials continue to recommend people to stay at least 6 feet (1.8 m) from the others, wearing a mask, washing hands often and to avoid touching the face.

Public pressure for the easing of restrictions is growing even in States with significant outbreaks. Thousands of people gathered in California to protest against restrictions because of the coronavirus, which led to 32 arrests.

The death rate in Chicago has reached 1000 people

Chicago, the third largest population city in the country with 2.7 million inhabitants, has achieved a “sad milestone” of 1,000 deaths from the coronavirus, said mayor Lori Lightfoot.

According to the Department of health of the city, killed at least 1 014 people.

For two months, the number of deaths from the coronavirus in the city of Chicago has reached two times greater than the number of murders in the city in 2019.

In new York the number of new cases decreases, in other States grow

In some States, the number of cases of coronavirus continued to decline, while in other areas there are problems.

The Governor of new York Andrew Cuomo announced that the number of diseases in the state most affected by coronavirus, is reduced, and the total number of hospitalizations below 10,000 for the first time since March.

However, he expressed disappointment about the slow decline in the number of cases, especially compared to how fast the number of cases increased at the initial stage.

“We are on the other side of the mountain, but the mountain is not as steep as the rise,” he said.

Mayor of Boston Marty Walsh said the numbers in his city was stable for several days, but he is concerned about the easing of restrictions.

“I appreciate that people want to save the economy,’ said Walsh. But I also want to save people’s lives. And I think it’s my job now, and that it should deal with every Governor and every mayor in the United States to save lives and reduce the spread of the virus”.

Member of the Task force on the White house coronavirus Dr Anthony Fauci, warned that premature action to cancel can lead to the restoration of the virus that can put US in “the same boat we were a few weeks ago.”

And second wave of the virus, according to him, inevitable. Its severity will depend on how prepared people.

People filled the streets

On the background of the softened constraints and intense heat, the police faced problems in some outdoor venues, including due to the lack of adherence to social distancing and limited use of facial masks.

For example, the police Department of Miami beach has announced that it will be closed again in South Pointe Park until further notice due to non-compliance.

According to police, the weekend in Miami beach resulted in more than 7300 warnings that the person is not wearing a protective mask. For violation of social distance resulted in more than 470 warnings, more than 1,300 people were asked to leave the parks.

In new York, where this weekend the parks were full of people, Cuomo said not to wear a mask in public is “disrespectful” towards others.

To solve this problem, new York distributes 7.5 million facial masks at different points of the city, said mayor bill de Blasio.

As previously wrote ForumDaily:

  • The US President Donald trump has adjusted its forecast for mortality from COVID-19 in the United States in the direction of increasing, while promising additional economic support in its quest to further a resumption of socio-economic activities in the country.

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