Strategic uncertainty — the main feature of the year that recently started. This is stated in the forecast, published before the meeting of the world economic forum, to be held next week in Davos (Switzerland). This writes the “Voice of America”.
That’s what you expect from the global economy the experts of international financial companies and institutions.
“Fragile, handle with care,” writes about the global economy in 2020, the world Bank. The Bank urged the world’s politicians to implement the strategy, which reduced the level of uncertainty.
Global growth has weakened in 2019 because of a trade war prevented China’s economic growth, say economists Markit HIS and note that in many parts of the world, the industry, or comes, or slowed growth.
Among the positive signs, economists pointed out that the trade war had such a devastating impact on the economy of the world as previously assumed, and at the end of the year a trend has emerged of stabilization in relations between China and the United States, and reduce uncertainty around Brekzita.
Now the global recession is not the most likely scenario in 2020, soothe the forecast of the Davos forum.
After years of instability, due to the trade between the USA and China, uncertainty about Brekzita, 2020 will start with weak growth accelerating to mid-year, I believe JP Morgan.
Agree with them and economists at Morgan Stanley. “At the end of the year, factors that caused the most global instability in 2019, such as a trade war between the US and China as well as uncertainty around Brekzita, begin to lose their relevance. This may mean that the global economy is beginning to improve”, — stated in the Bank’s forecast.
But Japanese Bank Nomura are more restrained in the projections, and I think by 2020 it will be more a year of consolidation, not the recovery. Bank experts expect the weakening of the dollar relative to world currencies “that can contribute to global liquidity and to provide developing markets access to resources”.
In N Markit predict a moderate strengthening of the dollar by 3% compared to other major currencies for two years. This, according to experts, will contribute to such factors as more rapid growth of the U.S. economy compared to other developed economies.
For Central and Eastern Europe the main theme of 2020 will be a slowdown, according to the International Institute of Finance of the USA. They note that Germany is slowing down production and if this will continue, it will become a negative factor that may slow the growth in the companies-suppliers from Central and Eastern Europe. However, the growth in the region will remain strong and will allow us to continue to harmonize the well-being of the countries of the region to the Western neighbors, experts say.
The US economy will grow
The potential growth of the U.S. economy is estimated at about 2%. Real GDP growth was above trend from 2017 to 2019 due to fiscal incentives. Some special factors will boost GDP growth in the first half of next year; “the First phase” trade with China will help a little, writes WeForum.
Consumer spending — about 70% of the economy — will increase by approximately 2.7% in 2020, which will ensure the growth of the economy as a whole.