Growth and jobs: the state of the economy at the trump in numbers

A strong US economy will be one of the main arguments of the speech of the President of the United States Donald trump in his third address to Congress on February 4. This writes Fox News.

Рост и увеличение числа рабочих мест: состояние экономики при Трампе в цифрах

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According to the adviser of the President of Kellyann Conway, trump will deliver “an optimistic, inspiring, visionary” speech on the situation in the country.

Nine months before the election, the economy continues to grow steadily, though modestly. The unemployment rate reached the lowest level in 50 years. The average wage is growing faster than when trump took office three years ago, the highest interest income now accounts for employees with lower wages.

“I am proud to say that the United States is experiencing an economic boom, the likes of which the world has never seen,” said trump in Davos (Switzerland). — America is booming like never.”

The growth of the economy

Productivity is one of the two major aspects of growth; second, increase the number of workers in the United States. Both slowed in the last decade.

In 2019 the economic growth was 2.3%, which is consistent with the average rate after the great recession ten years ago, in the first year of the eight-year presidency of Barack Obama.

During the campaign of 2016, trump boasted that his plan of tax cuts will increase annual growth to 4% a year — such a sharp pace not seen since the late 1990-ies.

Taxes

Most analysts believe that the tax plan trump helped to accelerate the growth, but not as he promised.

“Tax cuts trump was high, which temporarily affected the economy,” said Ryan Sweet, economist at Moody’s Analytics.

This put more money in the pockets of Americans, increasing consumer spending.

The economy grew by 2.9% in 2018, the growth rate was the same as in 2015, a year before the election trump.

However, the administration has vowed that tax cuts will do more than just encourage Americans to buy more.

Presidential economists have stated that tax cuts will accelerate corporate investment in machinery, computers, factories, and office buildings. All new equipment would make workers more efficient, thereby increasing the performance of a number of products for each hour worked.

Trade

Trade conflicts have made American companies much less confident in the economic Outlook and they do not want to expand and invest. Business investment decreased in the last three quarters 2019.

In addition, the reduction of taxes and deregulation of business has made the economy more dynamic. The growth of new companies remain small after the recession of 2008.

Large enterprises continue to dominate many industries from technology to retail and Finance.

All this is happening despite significant incentives. Trump attacked the fed Chairman Jerome Powell for what he did not reduce rates more, though the base rate the fed currently is in the range from 1.5% to 1.75%, historically very low level, which is considered stimulating.

The increase in Federal spending also helped to support the economy.

The congressional budget office predicted that the government’s budget deficit will exceed $1 trillion per year over the next decade.

Work

Trump has recently brought to the fore what he calls “blue-collar boom”, pointing to steady growth in wages for low-paid workers and healthy employment in construction and manufacturing. But the jobs in manufacturing in 2019, almost did not grow, as the factory was at the top in the middle of trade wars. After the inauguration of the trump jobs in manufacturing grew more slowly than employment overall.

Ernie Goss, Professor of Economics at Creighton University in Nebraska, said that since coming to power trump employment growth in the Midwest was only about three quarters of the national level.

According to him, farmers have also suffered from trade wars, retaliatory tariffs China has reduced exports of soybeans and other commodities. This, in turn, caused damage to the producers of agricultural machinery, including Deere and Caterpillar.

Moreover, most States ‘ election campaign in the Midwest, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin, lost their jobs.

According to Dean Baker, senior economist at the liberal Center for economic and policy research, the growth of production in industry under the chairmanship of the tramp occurred in the southern and Western States.

As these States fewer members of trade unions, those jobs usually pay less.

However, more and more people found work, contrary to the predictions of most economists. The proportion of Americans in their best working years — aged 25 to 54 years who work is now higher than before the great recession.

In 2019, wages rose by almost 5% for the poorest quarter of Americans, far more than for the richest quarter of whose wages grew by only 3%, according to the Federal reserve Bank of Atlanta.

However, wealthier Americans own a much larger share of the national wealth, and the top 10% own almost 85% of the value of all shares.

A moderate rate of growth means that so far the economy shows obvious signs of excessive kinship with the bubble in the housing market, which led to the financial crisis of 2008.

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