Heavy rains, floods and landslides: the U.S. record moving tropical storm Cristobal

Tropical storm Cristobal, the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season 2020, formed over the South-Western part of the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, June 2nd. On the same day the storm hit by rains in Mexico and some parts Central America, threatening severe flooding and landslides. On the morning of Wednesday, June 3, he reached the borders of the Mexican States. What to prepare Americans, says AccuWeather.

Ливни, наводнения и оползни: к США движется рекордный тропический шторм Кристобаль

Photo: Shutterstock

With the transition of weather phenomena to the status of tropical storm set a new record for the Atlantic basin. Cristobal became the earliest occurrence of a third weather system with a name in the Atlantic basin during hurricane season in the history of mankind.

Ливни, наводнения и оползни: к США движется рекордный тропический шторм Кристобаль

Photo: screenshot nhc.noaa.gov

Previously, the record was the 2016 season, he helped make history tropical storm Colin formed on 5 June. Cristóbal passed him for 3 days.

The name Cristobal has been used more recently in 2014 when he appeared at the end of August. The same list of names is used every 6 years, unless the storm is unusually severe or fatal.

Last year the Atlantic basin reached the letter “C” in their names faster — tropical storm Chantal formed on 20 August 2019 over the open Atlantic and weakened after 3 days.

The water in the Gulf of Mexico is warm enough to support strengthening tropical phenomena. As of June 2, the sea surface temperature was low to moderate in the Bay of Campeche, the region where the storm. Wind shear is another factor contributing to the strengthening of the system. And as it rotates over the ground, regardless of the strength of a tropical storm, the main impact that it will cause, will be expressed in heavy rains.

Ливни, наводнения и оползни: к США движется рекордный тропический шторм Кристобаль

Photo: screenshot nhc.noaa.gov

“The most immediate concern is the heavy rains that can cause life-threatening floods and landslides in South-Eastern Mexico, Belize and Northern Guatemala most of this week, said AccuWeather meteorologist Courtney Travis. It is projected that average rainfall to June 4 will be from 250 to 500 mm (10-20 inches) and a maximum of 760 mm (30 inches).

“The most heavy rains are likely to occur in some coastal areas and over higher terrain,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Rob Miller.

Currently, the air flows in Central America are weak, so a tropical storm can only slightly move to Thursday, June 4. It is projected that the system will make a small loop on the South-Eastern Mexico.

This does not mean that the United States is not at risk from tropical systems. The atmosphere and weather conditions are constantly changing. Ultimately, these changes will be to manage a tropical system in the long term.

It is possible that the storm could completely weaken after displacement into Mexico, but meteorologists AccuWeather do not think this is the most likely scenario starting Wednesday, June 3. If this happens, any new system that is developing on the shelf, probably, again will reset the process of naming storms. Part of this system was originally tropical storm Amanda, which developed over the Eastern Pacific and became deadly once provoked floods in Central America.

“The new system in the Atlantic basin may not advance too far into Mexico,” explained AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. In this case, the system will retain the name cristóbal.

Ливни, наводнения и оползни: к США движется рекордный тропический шторм Кристобаль

Photo: screenshot nhc.noaa.gov

South steering flow is likely to accumulate over the Gulf of Mexico and eventually will send a tropical system North into the Central Gulf of Mexico at the end of this week. How fast and how far the tropical storm will move North during this time and in the beginning of next week, will help meteorologists to determine where the storm will strike land.

“If he moves to the North, at a time when the high pressure weakens, the storm could hit the Central Gulf coast, possibly near Louisiana. This happens early in the morning or in the evening on Sunday, June 7, said Kottlowski. — If this does not happen, it is expected that this weekend, June 6 and 7, in Central and South-Eastern United States will be restored, the high pressure that can force the system to move to Texas early next week.”

Residents of the southern United States should monitor the strength and progress of this tropical system, it is recommended by the meteorologists.

Ливни, наводнения и оползни: к США движется рекордный тропический шторм Кристобаль

Photo: screenshot nhc.noaa.gov

Despite the fact that the system can proceed to the South of Mexico and after some time to loose, there is a significant probability that it will move North through the Gulf of Mexico, where it can again gain strength and to move in the direction of the United States.

“It is too early to speak with confidence about the scale and nature of impacts of a tropical system on the US,” said Kottlowski.

Flooding in the South ranked first in the list of concerns due to the fact that the storm may slow down after crossing into the U.S. next week, although the exact strength and direction of the system is still unclear.

Two pre-season storms, Arthur and Bertha formed in the warm waters off the southeastern coast on 16 and 27 may, respectively, the storm Bertha made landfall in South Carolina.

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