Co-founder of the “Ukrainian Institute for the future,” Anatoly Amelin believes that Ukraine is able to cope with the external debt service this year, despite the economic crisis.
He said this in an interview with the chief-editor of “Hvilya” Yuri Romanenko.
According to analysts, Ukraine will be able to pay off our foreign debt and do not default even in case of not signing of the agreement with the International monetary Fund.
“But it is advisable still to reach an agreement (with the IMF – ed.) to find a compromise to get funding, to get an additional source of reserves of the Central Bank, to refinance debt. But still it does not give money for development, we need to attract investment and to work with donors. For example, in 2016, we are attracted to the bonds guaranteed by the U.S. government. Obtaining such guarantees would be very useful for Ukraine”, — said Amelin.
According to the forecast of the economist at the end of 2020, the budget deficit of Ukraine will be about 300 billion hryvnia.
“If the Ukrainian economy “gives way” of 5-10%, the amount of aid should be roughly comparable to this “drawdown”. That is, we need to talk about 5-10 billion dollars in aid to the Ukrainian economy,” said Amelin.
Expert PEB believes that the government can do at least four steps to help Ukrainian businesses and, consequently, for economic development.
“Firstly, the Ukrainian business you need to encourage, not to cut jobs. These are some of the tax breaks, that is, can companies, especially small businesses, to exempt from these taxes for some time, while there is a quarantine to people was not fired, to or remotely worked or were paid, so they are not sitting on the neck of the budget. The second is an additional tax stimulus to the economy. Third is long — term concessional lending is cheap. Fourth — the lack of inspections in the course of this year both in small average and large business”, — summed up Amelin.