Hurricanes all over the world become stronger and more intense: what will happen next

Over the past four decades, hurricanes have increased in almost all regions of the world, and, according to the Federal study, one factor may be climate change. This writes Fox News.

Ураганы во всем мире становятся сильнее и интенсивнее: что будет дальше

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In the study conducted by the National oceanic and atmospheric administration (NOAA) and the Cooperative Institute of meteorological satellite studies (CIMSS) University of Wisconsin-Madison, an analysis was conducted of 40-year-old enhanced infrared satellite imagery of tropical cyclones.

“Our results show that the storms intensified at the global and regional levels, which is consistent with expectations of how hurricanes will respond to global warming, said James Kossin, Explorer of NOAA and lead author of the study. This is a good step forward and increase our confidence that global warming strengthened hurricanes, but the results do not say exactly which trends are caused by human activity, and what might be just natural variability”.

The study found a significant increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones from 1979 to 2017.

According to NOAA, a tropical cyclone is defined as a rotating “an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms”, which originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed circulation of low pressure. Depending on where the storms can be hurricanes, cyclones, tropical storms, typhoons or tropical depression.

The study showed that the maximum sustainable winds of tropical cyclones have intensified over time.

Data indicate a high probability of becoming tropical cyclones into major hurricanes, category 3, 4 or 5 on a scale of wind Saffira-Simpson. From storms of this magnitude sustained winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or greater.

The analysis of satellite images over a 40-year period showed that the warming of the planet increased the likelihood that a hurricane turn into a category 3 or higher, by approximately 8%.

“Through simulation and our understanding of atmospheric physics, the research is consistent with what we expect to see in such a warm climate as ours,” said Kossin.

The Atlantic hurricane season 2019 was the fourth consecutive season Atlantic hurricane in excess of normal, with 18 named storms. In 2019, three major hurricanes were Dorian, Humberto and Lorenzo.

Dorian Lorenzo was a category 5 hurricane. He was similar to three other hurricane — the hurricane of labor Day 1935, hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and hurricane Wilma in 2005 — and became the second most powerful hurricane in the history of the Atlantic basin terms wind, with maximum speeds reaching 185 mph (297 km / h).

Hurricane Michael, which devastated the strip of the Florida Panhandle in 2018, experienced a period of rapid transition to hurricane category 5 with a speed of 157 mph (252 kph). Just 36 hours before hitting the coast of Florida, Michael was the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane of category 1 with a speed of 90 mph (144 km per hour).

A recent study Koscina based on the previous work of 2013, identified trends in tropical cyclone intensity over the 28-year period from 1982 to 2009.

This time Cossin noted that the initial set of data was “less convincing and required a larger number of case studies of hurricanes to demonstrate statistically significant results.”

The researchers expanded the study to include global hurricane data for 1979-2017 year, in addition to identifying differences in the data caused by the progress of technology over time, including higher-quality satellite images.

“The main obstacle to search trends is that data is collected using the best of technology, said Kossin. Each year data is a bit different from last year, each new companion has new tools and collects data in different ways, so the result is a patchwork of all satellite data that have been woven together.”

In 2018, a separate study showed that hurricanes move across land slower because of changes in the Earth’s climate, leading to increased risk of flooding when the storms hovering over cities and other areas, often for prolonged periods of time.

While the Center for climate prediction NOAA is preparing to submit its initial seasonal Outlook for the Atlantic basin, the researchers from Colorado state University are predicting a hurricane season with above average this year, referring to the likely absence of El niño as the main factor.

The Atlantic hurricane season 2020 runs from June 1 to November 30 and will include the names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaiah, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.


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