Season the Atlantic hurricane season has set a record — but it’s only beginning, writes CNN.
With an early start, a record number of storms with the name, and the elements getting to the States, where there is usually no tropical weather systems, the hurricane season started quickly and interesting. Here is what the meteorologists and what to prepare for US residents.
Three storm with the name
Before the official season start June 1 in the US already had two storm name: Arthur and Bertha, which in itself is impressive. Then they added Cristobal, the third named storm of the season, and that is a record.
“We set a record for the earliest date of formation of storms, breaking the old record, recorded in 2016,” says Phil Klotzbach, researcher at the University of Colorado.
This means that in 2020, there appeared the earliest of storms with the name that start with the letter “C”.
Here is what is even more impressive: all three storms had a direct impact on the United States. The last two made landfall in the USA: Bertha in South Carolina and Cristobal in Louisiana.
“Historically, that the probability for any storm with a name, released on land in USA is about 4 to 1, so the probability of two consecutive named storms that came ashore in the United States is 1 in 16, says Klotzbach. — Of course, the storms that we have seen so far, typical for the beginning of the season. As a rule, they are short and pretty weak”.
For many meteorologists, all this was not a surprise because the forecasts assumed an active season.
“We knew that this hurricane season will be intense, as every group on forecasting seasonal hurricane declared the activity above average, and we did not have long to wait to start,” says Brandon Miller, a meteorologist for CNN.
If you blinked, you could miss Bertha
Storm Bertha was an insidious phenomenon that occurred just hours before landfall in South Carolina. At 9:30 a.m. may 27 storm Bertha made landfall East of Charleston with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h).
A more serious problem with the Bertha was the flooding that the storm caused in Florida and is a tropical excitement. Last month began in Miami at a moderate level of drought, but in part thanks to the moisture from the Bertha city ended the month with the wettest in the entire history of observations may. Unfortunately, as most of the rain came in a short period of time, it caused flooding on many streets.
Cristobal: an unusual route
When you think about the States that suffer from hurricanes and tropical storms, Wisconsin comes to mind. However, the remnants of Cristobal and got to the States of Iowa and Wisconsin, which rarely sees tropical system.
To cristóbal since the beginning of the records in Wisconsin were only three tropical systems: hurricane Gilbert in 1988, an unnamed hurricane in 1949, and the infamous hurricane of Galveston in 1900.
Flooding was the biggest problem for Cristobal in States such as Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, which received more profota (15 cm) of precipitation.
How about the rest of the season?
“Usually at the beginning of the season we see a weak tropical disturbances trying to “overcome heights” and become a named tropical storms, says Miller. But this year every storm, apparently, was formed in the named system — will it Herald a trend until the peak season? We’ll have to wait and see, but historically of early activity does not necessarily correlate with active peak.”
When forecasting for an entire season of hurricane you need to consider many things: the temperature of the sea surface, the presence of El niño/La niña and any other climate trends.
“Given that we expect an active season, I would guess that this year we will see more outs on land — adds Klotzbach. — Of course, the big question is whether any of these hurricanes are significant.”
Klotzbach noted that, historically, major hurricanes tend to occur off the West coast of Africa, extending West to the Caribbean sea.
It is also important to note that some of the most active hurricane seasons had not begun earlier. The most active Atlantic hurricane season recorded in 2005, had no pre-season storms. The same goes for 2010 and 2011 are also quite active seasons.
The Colorado state University only June 4, slightly increased its forecast for tropical activity of the season. Currently, there are predicting 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricane of category 3 or higher. In NOAA continues to suggest from 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. For reference, the average season has 12 storms named, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
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