Internal calculations made by the Federal aviation administration (FAA) after the crash of the Boeing 737 Max, showed that the plane might crash, a total of 15 times over the lifespan, writes Business Insider.
The forecast made before the second disaster prompted to stop flying this model of aircraft around the world, will mean about 3,500 deaths.
The information became public when documents that outline the forecast was made public at the meeting of the House Transportation Committee.
This figure is based on internal analysis undertaken by the FAA after the crash of Lion Air in October 2018, which killed 189 people.
The FAA calculations showed that the Lion Air plane crash occurred during approximately 136 000 th of the flight of the aircraft.
Based on this number combined with the life expectancy of the aircraft — maximum 45 years — likely to be 15 accidents, the document says .
Depending on configuration, MAX and completeness of the flight, the aircraft can accommodate up to 230 people.
Business Insider’s calculations showed that if MAX suffered from 15 accidents, which killed all passengers on a Packed plane around 3450 people could have died in addition to killed in a plane crash Lion Air.
According to calculations by the Wall Street Journal, which first reported on the publication of the document, 15 of the fatal crashes MAX would be “roughly comparable” to the total number of fatal accidents five other Boeing aircraft over the last 30 years: 747, 757 767, 777 and 787.
“The FAA failed to ask the right questions and are unable to adequately question the answers that the Agency has received from Boeing,” said Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio, Chairman of the Committee on the five-hour hearing.
“I don’t know why this plane does not stop flying after an analysis was conducted”, — said DeFazio.
“Our investigation showed that many of the technical experts and inspectors of safety the FAA believe that the leadership of the FAA is a frequent speaker for Boeing, not for the safety of society,” he continued.
Stephen Dixon, the administrator of the FAA, described a number of predictable accidents as “an unacceptable level of risk”.
“We must take steps to mitigate this risk”, he added before insisting that “the system is not broken”.
Professor of statistics mit’s Arnold Barnett questioned the assumptions and logic of the FAA, says Forbes. “Given that this calculation explicitly assumes that no system changes [not] associated with the Lion Air crash, I can’t understand their rationale. If they thought that warnings for pilots was enough to counteract the erroneous deployments MCAS, why they planned 15 future disasters?”
The FAA said followed standard procedure. According to the statement of 12 December: “… the Council for consideration of corrective action, the FAA relied on a scientific risk assessment tool, called “risk assessment Methodology for transport aircraft “(TARAM). TARAM is weighing a number of factors and is only used to help us to quantify the risk.”
“FAU used TARAM — as well as information about the ongoing investigation of the accident Boeing 737 MAX in Indonesia to support the immediate decisions of the Agency to issue 7 November 2018 Directive on emergency airworthiness (EAD)… which reminded pilots about important procedures to quickly adjust your stabilizer,” explained the FAA.
The FAA suggested that EAD will be effective, because the previous crew that ran the Lion Air plane, which crashed, was able — after a very panic and struggle — not to give the system of MCAS to break the plane. However, the crew flying on the same flight the next day, Lion Air 610 — could not cope with the failure of MCAS.
The FAA concluded that “control risk” 737 MAX will again fail, if the release of this EAD — was 1% (one out of 100 flights). This means that if the FAA has reported this information to the pilots, 100 flight crews would still be wrong.
The FAA assumed that if Boeing was able to repair the system MCAS for 200 days with a fleet of 300 aircraft MAX, who’s still flying, the risk would remain below 2% — the threshold at which the FAA would ground the aircraft.
Boeing said that did not agree with the analyses and conclusions of the FAA and its own analysis TARAM consistent with the findings of the FAA, a statement, a message to pilots on how to quickly correct the deviation of the stabilizer to disperse, “is fully consistent with the analysis of the FAA and the established process.”
Barnett refutes the analysis of the FAA: “Look, over a two-year period, the number of MAX averaged about 200. Had two MAX crash, which killed all on Board. In fact, it is once a year when fleet size of 200 aircraft. However, in TARAM States that the number of vessels in 4800, accidents will occur on average once in three years (15.4 per 45 years).”
Barnett stressed that “the available evidence indicates a much worse risk assessment”. According to his calculations “4800 — 24 times 200, so [approval of the FAA about one crash per year] at 200 means 24 failures per year at 4800 or 72 every three years, not one.”
It remains unclear when the 737 Max will again be able to fly because the FAA continues to evaluate changes in MCAS , software Max, of which caused two plane crashes.
It is expected that the 737 Max will return in 2020. Many airlines that operated the aircraft, removed it from its flight schedule until at least March.
As mentioned earlier ForumDaily:
March 10 Boeing 737 Max 8 of Ethiopian Airlines airline performing flight from Addis Ababa to Nairobi, crashed 60 kilometres East of the capital of Ethiopia. The plane crash claimed the lives of 157 people, among whom were citizens of 35 countries, including three Russians.
This disaster was the second plane crash of this type for six months at the end of October 2018, the same “Boeing” Indonesian company Lion Air fell into the Java sea shortly after taking off from the airport of Jakarta. Killing all 189 people aboard.
Immediately after the disaster in Ethiopia, many countries have suspended flights of Boeing 737 Max 8.
The last flights of liners of family 737 Max 8 has suspended US.
The Minister of transport of Ethiopia Dagmawit of Mages said that these “black boxes” of the crashed on March 10, Boeing 737 MAX 8 talk about “obvious similarities” with the crash of the same model in Indonesia in October 2018. The company does not agree.
Many of the pilots who had to operate Boeing 737 MAX, a wrecked in Ethiopia, versed in the administration of the model airplane using the iPad tablet.