Ukraine’s banking sector successfully passed the first stage of coronaries, but must prepare for the negative medium-term consequences.
“The Ukrainian banking sector was included in the pandemic triggered by the crisis in good shape and with a sufficient margin of safety. Through cleansing of the banking sector, implementation of internationally recognized capital requirements and liquidity, regular stress testing and implementing other measures to improve the reliability of the new sector, the crisis has not led to failures in the banking system”, — stated in the message NBU.
The national Bank reminded that banking services were provided continuously, investors constantly have access to their accounts, banks have ensured the security of the network. The outflow of deposits continued a little over a week, and then resumed growth in deposits.
The quality of the corporate loan portfolio of banks at the beginning of the deployment of coronaridine was the best in the last decade.
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However, the financial system must be ready to implement the negative effects of quarantine restrictions in the medium term, the national Bank noted.
To assess the impact of the current crisis on banks, the NBU conducted a rapid stress-testing. Estimated effect on equity of 26 major banks macroeconomic scenario, which is slightly worse than the current forecast of the NBU, published in the April Inflation report.
“The results of the stress test was generally better than last year, and showed that most banks were prepared for the current crisis. At the same time it was revealed that nine banks may violate the indicators of capital adequacy, two of them – the state. These are the same institutions that had negative results of stress testing in the past, but did not take sufficient measures to solve the accumulated problems”, — noted in the NBU.
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Given the guaranteed support of the government banks at risk during the current crisis are the banks, which collectively account for only 5% of banking sector assets.
Express the stress-test of banks shows that most banks preserve financial stability, despite the crisis, summed up in the national Bank.
As reported in the macroeconomic forecast to the Inflation report for April 2020, the national Bank assumed that Ukraine’s real GDP in 2020 will decrease by 5%, inflation will reach 6%, the growth of nominal wages will amount to 4.3% and unemployment of 9.5% on a scale of ILO. The deficit of the consolidated budget of Ukraine was estimated at 8% of GDP.