Quarantine restrictions on the operation of enterprises of trade, transport and services sectors, increased uncertainty and the deterioration of economic expectations led to a decrease in demand for labor.
This is stated in the “Inflation report” of Bank of April, reports Wave.
According to the NBU, the introduction of quarantine in the second half of March, will not have a significant impact on the unemployment rate in the first quarter.
However, in the second quarter, the unemployment rate will rise to 11.5% or 12.0 percent.
This assessment is based on NBU forecast of decline in real GDP in the second quarter, as well as the results of sociological surveys on the number of people previously working but lost their jobs as a result of introduction of quarantine measures.
According to the NBU, the number of vacancies during the period of quarantine has fallen sharply, which may be indicative of correction enterprises, first of all, plans for the recruitment of new staff.
Most of all, the number of new vacancies has fallen in sectors that are most suffered from the introduction of quarantine in the service sector, retail trade.
However, the General deterioration of the economic situation and growing uncertainty, the demand for labour has declined in other sectors.
The least amount fell in the it sector, the most adapted to work in remote mode.
Thus, the share of working remotely in this sector even increased from 10% to 90%.
In addition, in agriculture, in connection with the traditional increase in demand for labour during the planting campaign, the loss of jobs is minimal.
Enterprises according to surveys of the NBU and information from public sources, reported on various strategies to work with staff: maintenance of employees and wages, reducing the number of work days in a week, transfer to the remote mode of operation, the provision of paid and unpaid leave, dismissal of the staff.
“The increase in the duration of the quarantine, and the increasing uncertainty and worsening economic expectations deteriorated and expectations changes in the number of employees”, — stated in the report of the NBU.