Not only coronavirus: in 2020 the world will face severe natural disasters

The pandemic didn’t come alone. Followed by coronavirus 2020 promises a warming planet fires, flood, crop failure, and the biblical plague of locusts, BBC reports. Natural disasters threaten hunger poor countries and serious problems in Europe and the United States, warn meteorologists and international organizations.

Не только коронавирус: в 2020 году мир ждут жестокие природные катаклизмы

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The oceans heated as ever, in Europe and America is gaining momentum drought. In poor countries, planned the largest humanitarian crisis of the century, according to the UN definition. And the rich are threatened by floods, crop failure and the outstanding hurricane season.

In any other situation, the world is not without difficulty, but would have coped with climatic incident. But now all the resources thrown into the fight against Covid-19.

Doctors and rescue workers can’t spare the manpower, and the budgets do not have extra money. Farmers, business and transport immersed in an artificial coma quarantine. And if at the time of the pandemic coronavirus suddenly have devastating tornado or hailstorm in the days of harvest, the situation risks to get out of control.

On the help of neighbors or international organizations can not count: health force majeure has affected all countries. The virus will spare no one, warned recently chief economist of the IMF Gita Gopinath.

This time every man for himself. And the problem is not limited to money.

Quarantine is not abolished warming

Even if the country affected by flood, drought or hurricane, there is money for the disaster relief and recovery, buy and drive required for this is now more difficult than ever. World trade and transport is constrained by the coronavirus. Container ships and bulk carriers are languishing in the Harbor, planes do not fly.

Frightened by the epidemic, the authorities imposed bans on the export of medicines and food. Even the most rich, generous and open countries close their borders and do not give money for the cause USA, for example, blocked the funding to the actual today international body, the world health organization.

Coronavirus changed the life on the planet, but does not cancel the fact that you changed it to last time — global warming, which scientists blame for natural disasters.

According to the world’s largest database on Earth’s climate, the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in March 2020, the planet record-warmed up: only once for all the observations since 1880 the temperature has deviated more from the average.

And this in spite of the global quarantine, which stood transport and industry.

“Air pollution has decreased due to the reduction in economic activity, but carbon dioxide doesn’t disappear overnight, says Professor Daniela Schmidt of Bristol University. — Results of warming, like increased sea levels will be felt for centuries. Pandemic only has limited our ability to mitigate the effects of climate change”.

And the changes are evident.

Previous March record was recorded in 2016 against the background of El niño — the phenomenon of increasing the temperature of the water in the Pacific tropics, is fraught with extreme heat in summer and frosts in winter.

At this time, and no El niño sea record heated — the world ocean in March was 0.8 degrees warmer than average for the month value.

And the warmer the ocean, the more powerful it formed the hurricanes. Of the major economies, the greatest damage they cause to the US — richest country in the world, more than any other affected by the coronavirus. Semi-annual hurricane season starts in June.

Besides, overheated over seas pouring more than over cool land, which deprives the continent of rain and causes a drought. The increase in temperature in the Western Indian ocean is fraught with dry summers and forest fires in Australia, and the warming waters of the North Atlantic threatens to dry and burn the forests of the Amazon basin.

Heat wave in Europe

Global warming is dangerous is not so much the actual warming, as the fact that it causes faults in the usual program of weather phenomena, scientists warn. Suddenly the heat becomes unbearable, the cold harsher, the wind turns into a hurricane, and the rain — flood.

Last year’s example.

According to recent data from the European center Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2019 in Europe was the hottest in the entire history of observations. But this does not mean that the Europeans handed over a Mac in the scrap and bought sunscreen. Let the February, June and July were marked by an unprecedented heat, November brought record rainfall and widespread flooding.

And this picture is not new. In the whole of Europe into nearly two decades of this century had 11 of the 12 record-breaking hot years.

This year is no exception.

In the heart of Europe — in the heart of Geneva and Grenoble, there was no rain for over 40 days — last time this happened in the late nineteenth century. And just this week finally the heavens opened.

“Warming in Europe is considerably larger than the global trend, says Professor Rowan Sutton from the British National center for atmospheric research. — The data of the last 40 years clearly indicate it.”

The level of water reservoirs in the Ukraine and Romania had fallen to a critical level. Half of the agricultural land of France has dried up to such an extent that farmers are sounding the alarm.

In Germany, too dry, but the authorities do not hurry to panic, although concerned about the situation since the past two years have been dry, said the Minister of agriculture, Julia klöckner.

“Many, of course, rejoice good weather, but farmers are very worried. They well remember the droughts in 2018 and 2019, which deprived them of their harvest and income,” she said, and reminded about another danger: risk of forest fires.

The leading producers of wheat are Russia and Kazakhstan, looking at how it affected their biggest competitors in Europe, restricted the export of grain. They fear that an increased demand in rich countries will lead to export growth and deficit on the domestic market.

At the same time, dry and warm weather there are advantages: because in the sky over most of Europe for several weeks, cloudless, renewable energy covers more of the continent’s needs in electricity. In Germany farm solar on some days gives up to 40% of all energy, and prices day, more negative consumers actually pay for electricity, so they loaded the grid.

In the first three months of this year, nearly 800 times the price of the 15-minute contracts for the supply of electricity fell below zero. This is 80% more than a year ago, Bloomberg cites data from the European exchange Epex Spot.

Not all that bad. If no virus

The drought has affected not only Europe. The Argentine pampas and the American Prairie is also dehydrated.

In the US local scale drought is a terrible second degree has already been observed in Texas, California and Oregon, and “very dry” (third degree) in a dozen States, mostly in the South, near the Mexican border, in the centre and North-West, from Alabama to Washington.

But despite this, to talk about the damage the crop too early. The next two to three months will be crucial for the maturation of grain crops — the basics of most of the planet’s inhabitants and livestock. And the General condition of crops in the world doesn’t look threatening.

In addition, thanks to a brilliant yield last year of world bins overflowing with grain stocks at record levels.

This ought to calm down and disperse, but the case involved an uninvited guest — a coronavirus. The pandemic is unpleasant, but bearable in the usual fact situation sparkle with new colors.

Pandemic Porush global food logistics market: warehouses and ports is not enough healthy workers, the truck idle without drivers. No plane, no container to find. Transportation declined sharply.

The harvest, meanwhile, is rotting in the fields because agriculture is one of the main employers of migrant workers. However, due to quarantine, coffee pickers can’t reach the plantations in Latin America, Moroccans are not allowed to Spain to collect the strawberries, but the Romanians and Bulgarians not in a hurry in the UK and Germany.

It all smells a new food crisis. But unlike the previous two 2007-2008 and 2010-2012, this time the problem is not the lack of food. Its just in excess. Now the problem is how to collect and deliver the supermarkets.

A terrible famine and locusts

The danger of a food crisis, coupled with the pandemic coronavirus turns to rich States serious costs and develops a penchant for protectionism. This is a great reason to cut aid to poor countries, which have long fought populists: why help Africa, they resent, if we have in Detroit and Liverpool are starving, homeless and sick on the steps of the boutiques.

The worst time for such sentiments was difficult to come up with.

Even without a pandemic of the deadly virus 2020 promised the world largest humanitarian crisis since the Second world war, warned the world leaders long before Covid-19 Executive Director, world food programme David Beazley.

Now in the “perfect storm” of three dozen poor countries may face massive starvation. People will die in the tens and hundreds of thousands, and to prevent this, help not only in any case can not be cut, but will have to increase, says Beazley.

According to the most recent UN data, in the world is chronically undernourished, almost 1 billion people — one in eight people on the planet. And because of the caused by a coronavirus of the crisis, their number will grow to 130 million in 2020. Beazley warns that fasting will be 265 million people.

Food program of the UN, which he heads, is the largest humanitarian organization in the world. Every day she feeds almost 100 million people. If this help suddenly stop, every day up to 300 thousand people will die from hunger.

Within three months, each day will die as many people as live in cities the size of Simferopol, Chernigov or Vladikavkaz.

“We are faced not only with a global pandemic, but a global humanitarian catastrophe, said Beazley. — Millions of ordinary people in strife-torn countries risk to be on the brink of survival. The specter of hunger is very real and dangerous. In a worst case scenario famine threatens three dozen countries.”

Drought, virus and hunger at the same time — too much even for a mediocre disaster movie. But the scenario 2020 written by the unbridled losers of Hollywood, and they did not hesitate to add tragedy in the form of invasion of hordes of locusts.

Voracious creature hatched in Yemen on a biblical scale thanks to the warm and rainy winter. By the time the world has worried about the coronavirus, the locusts devoured the green in 23 countries in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

The world Bank has called the invasion the worst in a generation — and that’s before fully revealed his second, even bigger wave. Swarms of locusts Mature in Kenya, Ethiopia and Iran.

She will be happy in Africa just germinate the crops. The harvest this year is a big question.

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