Will Vladimir Putin follow through on his threat to use nuclear weapons in the conflict in Ukraine? Before Christmas, no one thought he would be crazy enough to start a war against Ukraine.
A war of irrational aggression that hurts Russia very badly. For his part, Putin did not foresee that the Russian army would be so incompetent, nor that the Ukrainians would resist so bravely, nor that Europe would unite behind Ukraine, nor that the United States and its allies would support Ukraine strongly, nor that China would back down. Putin is misinformed. He has surrounded himself with courtiers who flatter his most twisted ideas. It is steeped in a political ideology largely inherited from the end of the 19th century. He does not browse the internet.
1. Will Russian reservists change the course of the war?
Putin wants to send about 300,000 reservists to the front. But it is doubtful that they are sufficiently trained. In addition, the Russian army faces serious supply problems and bottlenecks that will hinder the movement of reservists. Despite everything, these reservists could open new fronts in Ukraine and thus weaken the Ukrainian army.
2. What are Putin's justifications?
Putin is lying to himself and he is lying to his people. He convinced himself that the United States and its allies wanted to attack Russian territory. An obvious falsehood. As if public opinion in democracies would accept an attack on Russian territory. As if leaders of democratic countries had made statements to that effect. He goes even further in the lie and claims that Western leaders have threatened to use weapons of mass destruction.
3. What does Putin really fear?
What Putin fears is the end of his reign and the resumption of Russia's march towards democracy. He confuses his own destiny with that of his country. A mistake common to many dictators. The war in Ukraine, this dirty war of aggression that he himself started, threatens to make him lose power. In his fall, he risks dragging down his followers and the Russian ultranationalists. All the means seem good to him to keep power. Including the use of nuclear bombs.
4. What could Putin use as an excuse to launch an atomic attack?
The pretext will probably be that the Donbass, conquered by war and annexed thanks to a clownish referendum procedure, is rightfully Russian territory. Putin does not understand that if Russia ever uses atomic weapons in this context, disapproval will be universal. His country will lose what little international support it has left. Even the Russian population will be horrified. Putin will also have brought Humanity to the threshold of a world nuclear war.
5. Should we give in to Putin?
Putin cannot admit that power is slipping away from him. For him, his failures necessarily come from the shenanigans of countries that are enemies of Russia. The dictatorial system he has put in place and his fear of falling lead him to ever more rash and brutal decisions. Faced with him, the other countries can only refuse to give in to his blackmail. After conquering Donbass and eventually all of Ukraine, where would Putin stop? As incredible as it may seem, Putin not only has ambitions to rebuild the former Soviet empire, but he also wants to conquer the rest of Europe. An ambition similar to that cherished by Stalin.
Katrine Johns has been a reporter on the news desk since 2013. Before that she wrote about young adolescence and family dynamics for Styles and was the legal affairs correspondent for the Metro desk. Before joining The Gal Post, Katrine Johns worked as a staff writer at the Village Voice and a freelancer for Newsday, The Wall Street Journal, GQ and Mirabella. To get in touch, contact me through my email@example.com 1-800-268-7128