Allan Lichtman is the author of the system of “13 keys to the White house”. Together with the Soviet Biofizika Vladimir Kalisa with Borok, he managed to develop a system over the last 36 years accurately predicted the outcome of nine presidential elections in the USA, writes “Voice of America”.
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According to this model, the identity of the candidate is almost irrelevant. Most importantly, how well the party that occupies the White house, to cope with their responsibilities. Evaluation of the actions of the party held on 13 criteria, and if 6 of them the evaluation is unsatisfactory, the White house is representative of a different party.
How public opinion polls reflect reality?
In General, the fact they are not. Public opinion polls can be used, but they are not predictors. They can be used to capture only a certain period of time, but they will change. In addition, social scientists do not know exactly who the respondents will actually vote.
You correctly predicted the outcome of 9 presidential elections and the impeachment of the President before he was elected. According to your 13-factor model, the presidential candidate of the opposition parties will be elected if the party that occupies the White house, the poor coped with their responsibilities for 6 of the 13 points. But what about the candidates for President? How important is their personality, charisma? As debates, political campaigns, slogans, advertising?
All you hear every day from the media: opinion polls, debates, political advertising, campaign fundraising unrelated to presidential elections. The presidential election is, in fact, the evaluation of the activities of the party that occupies the White house. And the party that tries to win the White house, has little to do with it. Only 2 of the 13 factors in my model refer to the person.
How do you feel about the concept of “chance to be elected”? Recently published an article in which he wrote that Bernie Sanders has a chance to be elected President. Why so worried about voting this question? What does this chance?
I would have removed only one idea from the political lexicon — “a chance for selection.” In the initial stages did not predict who will have this chance. And the fact that at first glance has to do with ideology, for example — bears no analytical value. The election of the President — an assessment of the activities of the party, whose representative currently occupies the White house. The identity of the candidate is irrelevant. There are exceptions once in a generation. For Democrats, this was Franklin Roosevelt and Republicans Ronald Reagan. Decades Democrats have tried to assemble this puzzle, nomineret such candidates as Joe Biden. They nominated Michael Dukakis in 1988, al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. What they have in common? All they lost. And unexpected candidates such as Jimmy Carter, bill Clinton and Barack Obama — won.
As the party that occupies the White house, cope with their responsibilities? Who has more chance to win this election?
All may change. To the party that occupies the White house, left it, she must play for 6 of the 13 factors. At the moment, Republican Donald trump is a 4 or 5. Not enough to lose, but things can change as a result of the epidemic of the coronavirus. A record decline in the stock markets, the possibility of a recession — these events do not allow to announce the final conclusion right now.
How do you feel about reports that Russia supports one of the possible candidates for the democratic nomination for President, Bernie Sanders?
I think actually it is. But Sanders ‘ support in order to lead him to victory. They want the tramp was re-elected. Doubtless, they had powerful support Trump in 2016, and he, in turn, gave them a good reason to do it again. I think they support Bernie Sanders for the same reasons that Donald trump wanted Ukraine slandered Joe Biden. They think that Bernie Sanders is the weakest candidate, which can compete with the trump. But it doesn’t matter: who will challenge Trump, there is no difference. The election will be a referendum for or against trump. Doesn’t matter who it is: Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders.
Photo: a video frame YouTube/Voice of America
And how will it affect the results of the changing American voter? In the next election in the US will vote a record number of Hispanics. These changes somehow affect the outcome?
My model does not work on the basis of demographics. Its principles are applicable to 1860, when women and African Americans did not participate in the elections. My European ancestors weren’t here yet. Most Asian Americans here too. The model went through significant demographic, political and economic changes in America and remains relevant. I’m not changing the categories. Point.
The only time you made a mistake in 2000. You predicted the victory of al Gore in the presidential election. The President was George Bush. You called a presidential election stolen because the voices of 50 thousand African Americans were not taken into account. Then factor influencing outcome, was the suppression of electoral activity. Unexpected variables can affect your model this year? For example, foreign intervention or activities of technology companies?
My system is very reliable. I designed it so that it is applicable to all the elections since 1860, when it elected Abraham Lincoln. Since 1984, she was able to predict the outcome of all elections. The only thing that my system does not take into account, is foreign interference. We don’t know how extensive it will be Russia’s participation in elections in the United States on behalf of Donald trump. But I’m sure they do, but to what extent and how effectively, I don’t know. And another question: will voting machines vulnerable to hackers. Unfortunately, my system does not take into account.
In his book “Case of impeachment” you predicted quick and decisive impeachment for the current President of the United States. You said that Republicans and Democrats will not tolerate the President of the traitor. The Senate met Donald trump on articles of impeachment, and the only Republican who voted against the current President was MITT Romney.
There are two reasons. First, the subject of impeachment was not Russia. As I wrote in my book, if it was proved that the tramp became a partner of the Russian intervention in the elections, the result would have been different. Second, the Republicans have much more support Trump than I could have imagined. But the reason is simple: Donald trump trashed all that the party called their moral principles. And this responsibility for your actions, God, budget constraints, States ‘ rights, limited role of government, God, respect for traditional democratic institutions, God. The Republicans have no ideological basis, except for the personality cult of President trump. And because they want to stay in power, they have no other choice.
The approval rating of Donald trump grew up after the process of impeachment and subsequent acquittal of the President by the Senate. So it’s only good for the Republican party?
Because of the Clinton impeachment in 1998 the Democrats lost a few seats in the house of representatives. At that time, as the approval rating of President bill Clinton increased. The year 2000 marked a victory for Republicans — George Bush was elected President. In the absence of impeachment of Democrats do, it would not hurt to win, as it was a time of peace, economic prosperity and peace in the international arena.
What the impeachment means to Donald trump and the Republicans?
Impeachment stain on the presidency of Donald trump, a stain on his presidential legacy. As rightly pointed out by the speaker of the house of representatives Nancy Pelosi, impeachment is forever. One of 13 factors in my model called “Scandal”. Since trump became one of three U.S. presidents ever to have been subjected to impeachment, this factor negatively influences the probability of re-election. But it’s just one factor, by itself it does not determine the result. But it can be crucial in these elections, given the similar odds of Republicans and Democrats to win.
During the trial in the Senate in case of impeachment was not caused by the witnesses, and the President was acquitted. Is it possible for your system to identify this as a scandal?
It is a scandal exactly. Despite the fact that Senat was acquitted of the trump, most of the American population is convinced that he abused his power and hindered the work of the Congress. This is the real scandal.