The meteorological situation in the Central Atlantic indicates that even before the official start of hurricane season (June 1) can form the third tropical or subtropical depression (cyclone) after storms, Arthur and Bertha, writes Weather.com. Even two such “early” phenomenon is rare, and three are recorded only once in the history of observations in 1951.
On Thursday evening, may 28, the national hurricane center (NHC) has designated this system as Invest 92L — such encoding allows special computer models to consider the possible scenarios.
In this weather the NHC gives system medium chance of development by the weekend no later than Saturday, may 30.
Invest 92L is producing isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds in its Eastern semicircle, and if this system will continue to evolve, it will probably be subtropical in nature. This means that the weather phenomenon will obtain energy from the warm water and jet stream, in this case from a subtropical stream.
The development is likely to be slow, as both an energy source will remain limited. Subtropical systems are also usually quite broad with a broad wind field, making it harder to gain.
Photo: screenshot nhc.noaa.gov
System located several hundred miles Southeast of Bermuda and is expected in the next few days will move mostly to the North. Presumably Invest 92L first Orient to the North-West a large area of high pressure, and then to come to the USA or Canada he will not allow a cold front that will move off the East coast in this direction.
Bermuda will probably not be affected by the system directly, but cold front, which will take Invest 92L in the sea, can bring the Islands some rain and gusty winds. In the sea there’s a storm.
The next system that will be able to reach the intensity of tropical storms will be named cristóbal (Cristobal). The first two, we recall, was named Arthur (Arthur), and Bertha (Bertha).
What will be the hurricane season in 2020
Yet, before the official start of the season in the Atlantic, of the United States swept two hurricane Arthur two weeks ago, and Bert in the beginning of the last week of may. Meteorologists say that at the moment it is difficult to make forecasts for the entire hurricane season based on the activity that was still.
Only one hurricane season consisted of 3 tropical or subtropical cyclone before the official season start June 1: it was in 1951. Then in January formed a tropical storm, followed by hurricane Abel and tropical depression in may.
According to the researcher of tropical systems from the University of Colorado Phil Klotzbach, only four times before June 1 was recorded two storm, for the entire period of observations since 1851: in 1887, 1908, 1951 and 2012.
However, if you look at the forecasts, not history, hurricane season above average predicted by many experts, including experts from The Weather Company and NOAA.
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