In recent days in Ukraine have sharply increased the demand for foreign currency. Ukrainians massively rushed to buy cash green. However in banks it is over and some financial institutions have started to impose restrictions on the issuance of currency to the customer, such as, for example, did Alfa-Bank and PrivatBank, writes UBR.
According to experts, the population is afraid of the next wave of restrictions that may lead to the closure of banks and, consequently, the impossibility of obtaining cash.
Foreign currency rent in little offices it is not enough. There’s panic fears of the collapse of the hryvnia. People still remember the 2008 crisis and 2014-2015 and three-time selloff.
“Demand has grown significantly amid the panic and emotional purchases. We are talking only about cash. The demand for the Euro is not as significant as for the dollar,” – said in a conversation with UBR.ua head of Department of Analytics GK Forex Club Andrey Shevchishin.
What is the deficit
Bankers specify: the shortage of currency at the box office has nothing to do with excessive demand.
Restrictions on the issuance of dollars or lack of dollars in cash desks of some banks caused by the confluence of two circumstances:
First, because of the “coronavirus” restrictions do not working the main channel of receipt of currency in Ukraine – air transportation;
Second, the subsidence of the hryvnia in recent days has led to increased demand for foreign currency (particularly the dollar) and a reduction in the supply. And because the channel of replenishment of the cash reserves is not working, the deficit.
“Temporary restrictions on the issuance and sale to customers dollars associated exclusively with the lack of supply of banknotes of foreign currency in Ukraine because of border closures and air traffic with the U.S. and with EU countries. Currently, the Bank is actively looking for alternative methods of delivery of currency to the country, “–say in Alfa-Bank.
Problems with the supply of cash to Ukraine noted other banks. In this case the financiers point out that while the restrictions will not be introduced – the banking system feels much better than in past crises.
“Now there are difficulties with the delivery of cash to the territory of Ukraine from Europe and the United States. This pause in the delivery and impact on the gap in the loop. Anyone have a dollar they hold in order to sell more expensive“, – said in an interview with UBR.ua the Director of the Department of the banknote printing banking Industrialbank Andrew lions.
One dollar bear, buy three
Bankers are hoping that soon the issue of shortage of currency will be decided. However, not all banks impose restrictions on the purchase of the dollar and yet do not see preconditions for any tightening.
“The demand has really grown from the population several times. Now put 1 dollar has bought about 3.5. However, our cash is now quite liquid, filled as the dollar and the Euro. There are no restrictions in the near future is not planned“, – said Andrey Lvov.
Banks easily sell non-cash foreign currency online, return foreign currency deposits on current accounts of customers served by wire transfers.
“Liquidity problems no, the money ran out, obligations to be met in full. Need for additional restrictions, “–says the Executive Director of the Independent Association of banks of Ukraine Olena Korobkova.
As soon as the quarantine mode or earn alternative channels of delivery of cash currency in Ukraine, the problem will be solved, say financiers.
Ukrainians began to actively stock products and currencies
How long will increase the rate
The temporary shortage of currency in the form of cash affects the strong distortions between the interbank rate and the cash.
For non-cash (interbank) and cash markets – a different balance of supply and demand. So the price of the goods (currency) in these markets may differ.
“Last year, for example, the cash dollar was often cheaper cash today – on the contrary. The shortage of currency in the cash market formed a bias in favor of demand (compared to the interbank), so there was a significant gap in rates, “says Korobkov.
In the next two weeks, bankers predict passage rate in the range 28,5-29,5 UAH/$.
“Expect excitement on the part of the population soon will fall, when a sufficient amount of currency will be delivered to the country. There are no prerequisites for the growth of the dollar further. But it is necessary to monitor the situation with quarantine, will be whether (and how many) businesses to close, “–said Andrey Lvov.
The hype around the dollar trying to play profiteers on the black market. But now there has been a decline in activity. For example, the course on March 17 at a level above 29 UAH/$ has not used such a demand and went to the rollback.
“Rson very much settled and cleaned, so large-scale black market we are unlikely to see. Will the grey market. After the quarantine ended, the market quickly recovered, “–said the Shevchishin.