Halfway through the electoral marathon, support for the CAQ weakens,even though François Legault's troops dominate in almost all regions of Quebec. Notice to party leaders: However, the first debate tonight will be decisive for one-third of voters.
With 38% of the voting intentions, the caquistes are still on their way to a majority government. But the downward trend has been constant since the beginning of August. François Legault's party has even fallen by only 4 percentage points since the election was called, shows a Léger-Le Journal-TVA-Qub poll conducted from September 6 to 12.
< p>“This is not a good campaign for the CAQ, analyzes Jean-Marc Léger. There is like a yellow light for the CAQ”. This is the first time in nearly three years that the caquists have found themselves below the 40% support mark. This shift is mainly due to a drop in support among young people.
Provincial voting intentions 38% of Quebecers would choose Legault's CAQ. If provincial elections were held today, which party would you intend to vote for? As of September 14, 2022
Despite everything, the political party continues to outpace its opponents in practically all corners of the province. For the time being, none of the other four parties clearly emerges as the main rival of the CAQ.
The decline in voting intentions in favor of the leaders benefits all the other formations, which each make small gains. This is what makes the pollster say that the slippage of the Caquists “is of no consequence” for the moment.
But the first televised confrontation Thursday evening on TVA between the chiefs could change the course of things. No less than 34% of people surveyed say they can change their minds during the debate. “Those who say that the campaign is over, no way, because when it starts to slip, it's hard to stop,” insists the president of the Léger firm.
Montréal, village Gallic
Like a Gallic village, Montreal still seems impregnable for François Legault. He only managed to seduce a meager 15% of voters in the Metropolis. It is the Liberals and the Solidarity who are vying for the ridings on the Island.
Despite a road strewn with pitfalls in this first half of the campaign, the Liberal Party of Dominique Anglade retains its second place with 18% support.
Thanks to twenty seats guaranteed in Montreal and the difficulty solidarity to substantially increase their electoral base, the Liberal can still dream of remaining leader of the official opposition. “Before Québec solidaire gets 20-22 seats, it takes more than 17% of the votes,” said the pollster.
Evolution of voting intentions As of September 14, 2022
However, Ms. Anglade will have to keep her own riding, Saint-Henri-Saint-Anne, coveted by the team of Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois.
The QS co-spokesperson, like the curator Éric Duhaime, have the opportunity to score points during the leaders' debate. After the outgoing Prime Minister, they are the ones who are attracting the most interest in view of the televised confrontation.
The PQ, best 2nd choice
With 15% support, the Conservative Party blows in the necks of those in solidarity. Jean-Marc Léger points out, however, that the sounding ended before Mr. Duhaime's setbacks regarding his unpaid taxes came to light.
Second choice 18% of Quebecers would choose the Parti Quebecois by Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon. Which of the following provincial political parties would be your 2nd choice? As of September 14, 2022
Up two points since the end of August, the Parti Québécois can boast of being the best second choice of voters. “If there were to be a continuation of the slide of the CAQ, it is the PQ that it would favor more. It's like a pending vote, so so far, for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, it's a victory that is moral.”
But the “bonus at the ballot box” is very likely to benefit François Legault, who enjoys the support of people aged 55 and over, those who go out to vote more.
Best campaign 25% of Quebecers think that François Legault is leading the best campaign at the moment . Regardless of your voting intention, which leader has had the best campaign so far? As of September 14, 2022
CAQ François Legault
QS Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
PCQ Eric Duhaime
PQ Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon
PLQ Dominique Anglade NSP/Refusal: 31%
The web survey was conducted from September 6 to 12, 2022 among 3,100 Quebecers aged 18 years of age and over and having the right to vote in Quebec. Respondents had to be able to express themselves in French or English and were randomly recruited using LEO's online panel. It is not possible to calculate a margin of error on a sample drawn from a panel, but for comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 3100 respondents is plus or minus 1.8%, and 19 times out of 20.
Would you like to take surveys too? Sign up for LEO, the Léger panel: https://bit.ly/3raMw62
Do you have a scoop for us?
Do you have something to share with us about this story?
Do you have a scoop that our readers might be interested in?
Katrine Johns has been a reporter on the news desk since 2013. Before that she wrote about young adolescence and family dynamics for Styles and was the legal affairs correspondent for the Metro desk. Before joining The Gal Post, Katrine Johns worked as a staff writer at the Village Voice and a freelancer for Newsday, The Wall Street Journal, GQ and Mirabella. To get in touch, contact me through my firstname.lastname@example.org 1-800-268-7128