The Professor, who is known for having accurately predicted the winners of all presidential elections since 1984, rendered its verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will win the current US President Donald trump. This writes CBS News.
American University Professor Allan Lichtman uses he created a system of 13 “keys” that decide who will win a trip to the White house.
In 2016, Lichtman was one of the few who predicted the victory of Mr. trump in the election. He also said that President trump will fall under the impeachment process. Four years later, Allan predicts victory for Biden in November.
“The keys to predict that trump will “lose the White house,” says Lichtman.
But Lichtman believes these competitions are very close and emphasizes that there are several serious factors that can change the outcome. 13 keys in the system include such components as persistence, long-term and short-term economic indicators, social unrest and scandals, as well as the personal charisma of the candidates.
In accordance with the system of Lichtman, seven of the 13 keys prefer Biden, and six Trump that gives the democratic candidate a slight edge to win.
Lichtman noted a few keys that work for Mr trump:
he is the actual President;
he was the author of major changes in politics and has avoided any major military failures abroad;
he competes against the man Lichtman considers “not a charismatic candidate”.
But Allan sees that Biden has the advantage, especially in light of the pandemic COVID-19 and the national movement of protests against brutality and systemic racism.
Social upheaval and economic collapse can bring Biden victory. The constant wave of scandals during the presidency of trump, including his impeachment, also makes the victory of Biden’s more real.
Also, Allan did not believe trump’s “charismatic leader”, arguing that it appeals to a narrow circle of voters, which gives another advantage to Biden.
In the interview Lichtman also notes that in addition to the factors provided for in the keys, plays a big role in voters ‘ behavior and the possible intervention of the Russians in the elections.
“You, the voters, to decide the future of our democracy – said Lichtman. – So get out and vote. Vote personally. Vote by mail”.
A few weeks before the elections in 2016 key system Lichtman gave Trump a slight advantage over Hillary Clinton, even when most of the national polls showed it winning. Allan then pointed to a number of factors, including support from Gary Johnson, the failure of the Democrats in Congressional elections, as well as the actual failure of President Barack Obama was a candidate again.
Lichtman stated that the assessment of elections in 2016 was the most severe since, when he started to do it.
Allan Lichtman used a key system for predicting the winner of each race since winning re-election Ronald Reagan in 1984. In 2000 predicted that the election victory from al Gore. He won the popular vote but lost the presidency to George Bush after the Supreme court made the decision to stop a recount in Florida.