Mandatory quarantine and other restrictive measures introduced in almost all European countries, has helped to reduce the potential number of victims of coronavirus almost 60 thousand people. Perhaps by the end of March, managed to save half even more lives. About it writes BBC.
To such conclusion came from a team of scientists at Imperial College London in his latest study published in the journal Nature.
And it is only about 11 countries in Western Europe. In European and especially global scale we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people who could die if not taken measures to curb the pandemic.
On the same day there was another important publication, in the Lancet. There are the most accurate to date data on the disease and brought not-so-optimistic statistics.
In particular, the authors estimate that from the appearance of the first symptoms Covid-19 before a full recovery takes an average of almost 3.5 weeks.
“Reason for optimism”
In my previous study, of 26 March, scientists at Imperial College argued that without any measures to curb the pandemic Covid-19 had to roll to almost everyone on the planet, and infect nearly 7 billion people.
The death toll from the coronavirus in this scenario would be about 40 million.
However, having studied the latest data on the number of sick and dead in 11 countries of Western Europe — including Italy, Spain, France and the UK, scientists came to the conclusion that the epidemic’s growth has slowed by almost two thirds.
In some places he even went down, that is the level of reproduction of the virus (the number of healthy people to infect, on average, every infected) fell below 1.
The result in Europe has managed to save around 59 thousands of people who otherwise would have died from coronavirus by the end of March. The minimum number of lives saved is estimated at 21 thousand, a maximum of 120 thousand.
The report’s authors argue that this became possible through the adoption of restrictive measures: closing schools, ban on mass gatherings, restrictions of public transport and the movement of people as a whole, the introduction of mandatory quarantine and isolation mode, etc.
In work separately emphasized that while it is impossible to establish which constraints had the greatest influence on the decline of the epidemic. However, collectively the measures continue to give obvious result.
Even in Italy, where the death toll from Covid-19 is already close to 12 thousand, without restrictive measures, the casualties would have been almost 50 thousand, according to calculations.
However, the authors of the article, due to the long incubation period of the disease in most countries the effect of the adopted restrictive measures can be fully assessed only in a few weeks.
However, if the current trend will be maintained, we have reason for optimism, the scientists conclude.
Three weeks before discharge, two — to the grave
Pandemic coronavirus is developing so rapidly and so recently that the vast majority of scientific publications on this subject are based on rather fragmentary and unrepresentative information.
We do not know enough about the virus and it causes disease: how it occurs, how long does what complications are threatened and for which categories of people is the most dangerous.
A study published in the Lancet, actually produces the first reliable data answering some of these questions.
The authors have carefully examined several thousand case histories of patients (from China and 37 countries) are either recovered and was discharged from hospital, either joined the statistics of victims of coronavirus.
The average time from first symptoms Covid-19 to death — nearly 18 days. To recovery nearly 25 days, that is three and a half weeks.
Based on these data it becomes more clear, why for three months of the epidemic was confirmed more than 800 thousand cases of the coronavirus, but only 170 thousand patients have recovered and 40 thousand were killed.
The other nearly 600 thousand infected still sick as he was ill for the last three weeks. On March 10, there were less than 120 thousand cases of the disease.
Another important indicator, given in the refined mortality. In China, as the average worldwide, from the coronavirus passed away less than 1.5% of those infected is below the estimates of most other studies.