Quebec 2022: 6 electoral scenarios to consider

Quebec 2022: 6 electoral scenarios to consider< /p> UPDATE DAY

Elections always have their share of surprises and reversals. We need only think of the orange wave of the 2011 federal election, when Jack Layton's NDP swept away everything in its path in Quebec. What will happen this time in the provincial elections next Monday? Here we present six potential scenarios that could come to fruition. Or not.  

1. THE PQ WRITTEN OFF THE MAP

In this case, it would not really be a surprise, since some have not hesitated to speak of the announced death of the PQ after the current elections. But what is it really? 

“At the very beginning of the current election campaign, the potential of zero MPs for the PQ existed”, comments Christian Bourque, vice-president of the firm Léger . 

The tide seems to have turned since the chef delivered strong performances at both televised leaders' debates. However, we cannot speak here of a breath of storm.

The PQ was able to raise its head in the polls. This momentum will undoubtedly allow it to keep its strongholds in eastern Quebec, particularly in Matane-Matapédia, where veteran Pascal Bérubé is well in the saddle, but it should not be sufficient, believes Mr. Bourque, to maintain the 10 seats obtained in 2018.   

2. A CAQ SCAN

Could François Legault carry out a sweep on Monday evening on a par with the one Robert Bourassa achieved in 1973, winning 102 seats out of 110? 

Probably not, because the CAQ will find it difficult to break into English-speaking and allophone ridings, concentrated on the island of Montreal, judge Christian Bourque, where it has no base, unlike the Liberal Party in 1973. 

“Regardless of the party, a sweep is practically not possible in Quebec, unless one is favored by English-speaking and allophone voters”, he underlines. 

Furthermore , according to him, we must not forget the well-established presence of Québec solidaire in Montreal, which the CAQ will not be able to dislodge.   

3. THE PLQ LOSES FEATHERS AND MAYBE ITS LEADER

In terms of percentage of votes, the results of the Quebec Liberal Party in Monday evening's election could be the worst for the party since Confederation in 1867, even worse than those of 2018, when the Liberals took 25% of the popular vote. . 

That would represent quite a downfall for a party that has succeeded in forming no less than 25 governments in the history of Quebec. 

And if the Liberals fall below 20% of the vote or 12 elected MPs, they could even lose their status as a parliamentary group and the budgets that go with it, unless an agreement is reached with the other parties. < /p>

“All the ridings where the majority of the electorate is French-speaking are in danger for the Liberals, including on the island of Montreal,” notes Christian Bourque, of the Léger firm. This is the case for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, where the leader Dominique Anglade is representing herself and where a three-way fight takes place between her, the solidarity candidate and that of the CAQ. 

The latest projections predict that the PLQ will obtain around twenty seats on Monday with approximately 16% of the vote, compared to 31 seats in 2018.  

4. A MINORITY GOVERNMENT FOR THE CAQ

What about the possibility of a minority government for the CAQ? Quebecers can change allegiance quickly, as we have already seen in the past. 

Christian Bourque does not reject this possibility. “In Quebec, our skin is quite thin during election time,” he notes. 

On the other hand, in his opinion, at least one condition must occur for the CAQ to find itself in a minority zone: support for the party must fall below 31% of the votes. The latest polls show support between 35 and 40%. 

Furthermore, the terrain does not seem conducive to such a decline in popular support. “The question of the ballot box in the current elections is not to get out of the government in place”, indicates Mr. Bourque.  

5 . QUEBEC SOLIDARITY OFFICIAL OPPOSITION?

François Legault seemed to support this idea in the current campaign by repeatedly asserting that the electoral battle was going to be two-sided, between his party and Québec solidaire. 

But, to succeed in forming the first opposition group, the party of Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and Manon Massé has a good slope to climb. It must at least double its number of seats from 10 to 20. 

It's a big contract, according to Christian Bourque, from Léger. QS, and that seats adjacent to theirs, in Sherbrooke and Rouyn-Noranda, also switch to QS.  

“It would have to be, he specifies, like an oil stain around the counties that they already master. »  

 

6. A STRONGER THAN EXPECTED DUHAIME BREAKTHROUGH

The stars for the Conservative Party of Quebec do not seem aligned so that the party and its newcomer leader can cause a major surprise in Monday's election.

“The PCQ has done its full support,” says Christian Bourque, from Léger.

And this full support is between 15% and 20% of voting intentions in the various polls. It has hardly moved since the start of the election campaign.

With the arrival of Éric Duhaime as leader in April, the party jumped in the polls and stabilized thereafter.< /p>

In addition, it should be noted that the victory is not guaranteed for Mr. Duhaime in the riding of Chauveau, where he is running and where the outgoing CAQ deputy retains solid roots.

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