Quebec 2022: growth, taxes and inflation

Quebec 2022: growth, taxes and inflation

UPDATE DAY

TOO OPTIMISTIC GROWTH

All parties except Quebec solidaire forecast stronger economic growth than economists expect, underlines Philippe Goulet-Coulombe, professor in the Department of Economics at UQAM. 

“They are counting on economic growth which, in my opinion, seems unrealistic so clearly, we can expect that it is not happening as they expect,” he analyzes. 

Only Québec solidaire has followed the consensus of experts on this issue. 

Marie-Soleil Tremblay, professor of accounting and public finance at ÉNAP, points out, however, that Québec solidaire has been very optimistic about the revenue forecast. 

“They imagine an increase very, very fast, as if by snapping your fingers, taxing GAFAM, increasing taxes on big companies and stopping the incorporation of doctors, all that, very quickly, will translate into money ringing in the coffers of the State”, she illustrates. 

 

* The financial framework of Québec solidaire does not provide data in this area for 2022 -2023

ELECTORALIST TAX CUTS

The CAQ, the Liberal Party and the Conservatives all announced tax cuts at the start of the election campaign. This measure appears highly political, according to our experts.  

“As soon as there is a party that promises to lower taxes, there are other parties that will say : if I don't, will I lose a vote? asks ENAP professor Marie-Soleil Tremblay. 

“There is nothing economically right now that seems to justify the fiscal striptease that we saw in early September. It's certainly political,” adds Philippe Goulet Coulombe. -2023

This tax gift also risks harming the efforts of central banks, which are trying to calm economic growth that has become inflationary. And the state will need money when the pandemic comes out, pleads the UQAM professor.

“I don’t think this is the time to thin out the tax base. I think that this money, we will need it if only to maintain our public services at a reasonable level, ”he underlines.  

QUÉBEC SOLIDAIRE IS EXPLODING THE DEBT

With a debt/GDP ratio of 44%, Quebec's debt would be highest under a solidary Québec government at the end of a first mandate.  

* The CAQ's financial framework does not provide data on this subject for 2022 to 2025

“For me, this is clearly a step in a rather irresponsible direction given what we know of the demographic curve of Quebec, the state of the health system and other public systems. I don't think that increasing the debt/GDP ratio means giving yourself a chance for the years to come,” laments Philippe Goulet-Coulombe. 

The CAQ, the Liberal Party and the Parti Québécois project a ratio of around 40% in 2026-2027, which seems “more reasonable”, according to him. This could allow Quebec to have some leeway for the more difficult years.  

The Conservative Party is the one that is committed to reducing the date the most at the end of a possible mandate.  

 

* Québec solidaire's financial framework does not provide data on this subject for 2022-2023

**The CAQ refused to reveal its projections concerning Québec's gross debt in over the years. The party has limited itself to sending us a single figure for 2026-2027 representing the net debt.

“But it's very utopian as a way of seeing the world,” comments accounting expert Marie-Soleil Tremblay, who is also surprised that the Liberal Party has not planned any return to a balanced budget for the four years ahead. 

“He once wanted to be the party of rigor. And this is not something he aspires to in his financial framework,” she points out.  

THE PCQ: THE LESS REALISTIC

The Conservative Party is without a doubt the one that carried out the least realistic accounting exercise, our two experts decide.   

“Assumptions in the financial framework, as for me, they do not hold water,” summarizes Marie-Soleil Tremblay, professor of accounting and public finance at ÉNAP. 

Same There is nothing quite wrong with his colleague at UQAM, who describes this financial framework as “far-fetched”. 

“The reason is simple: they forecast economic growth that is significantly higher than what economists are waiting”, explains Professor Philippe Goulet Coulombe. 

 

* The financial framework of Québec solidaire does not provide data on the subject for 2022-2023

The financial framework of Éric Duhaime's party provides for a marked reduction in debt and budget surpluses important that depend not on the measures that training intends to deploy, but on the increase in income thanks to more sustained economic growth, notes the expert. 

“It seems pretty unlikely to me. It is the least credible from my point of view […] The party may not have taken the exercise very seriously or that the people in charge of setting up this exercise are a bit ideological or moody. .. or both,” he concludes.  

Key party financial commitments

 

1% tax for the first two tax brackets as of 2023 

Measures financed by withholding 39% of planned payments to the Generations Fund

Return to balanced budgets in 2027-2028

Debt to GDP ratio at 40.4% in 2026-2027

 

Tax reduction of 1.5% for the first two levels.

Keep payments to the Generations Fund 

No return to a balanced budget expected by the end of the mandate< /p>

Debt to GDP ratio at 40.2% in 2026-2027

 

Increase in taxes for the wealthiest and taxes for businesses

End of contributions to the Generations Fund

Budget balance achieved in the second year of a first mandate

Ratio of debt to GDP at 44% in 2026-2027 < /p>

Creation of a tax on “excess profits” from businesses

Would draw approximately $2.5 billion per year from payments to the Generations Fund, in addition to reducing planned payments by 50 to 60% each year. 

Budgetary surpluses from the second year of a first term

Debt-to-GDP ratio at 39.4% in 2026-2027

 

Increase in basic exemption amount and 2% reduction in taxes for the first two tiers

Status quo for payments to the Generations Fund

Budgetary surplus from the third year of 'a first mandate

Debt to GDP ratio at 34.3% in 2026-2027

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