Republican wave on the horizon

Republican wave on the horizon

DAY

With two weeks to go until the midterm elections, Republicans appear to be back in the driver's seat. After seeing a drop in the polls following the Supreme Court's decision on abortion, the GOP is coming back strong.

Joe Biden isolated

The FiveThirtyEight site assesses the percentage of chances that the Republicans will regain control of the House at 80%, a figure that has been on the rise for a good two weeks.

We are targeting around fifty constituencies for which we are considering struggles tighter. If the GOP remains advantaged there, a strong mobilization of Democratic voters could cause some surprises.

This is what makes filmmaker Michael Moore say that a blue tsunami will break on November 8. The latter had correctly predicted Trump's victory in 2016 and that is why the media is interested in these statements. If his opinion is worth many others, I nevertheless believe that he is right to identify the vote for women as a possible turning point.

Even if the Democrats mobilized their base like they did in 2020, I would wait to bet the house on a win. The main campaign issues remain inflation and the economy. The president can hardly change the trend in the first case and we cannot sell his more than honorable economic performance.

In addition to controlling the House, the Republicans should also impose themselves in the campaigns aimed at electing the governors of 36 of the 50 states. One can easily imagine that the GOP will triumph in about twenty states after the counting of the results. A few races, Wisconsin, Oregon and Nevada, however, could be decided on the razor's edge.

The only reason for celebration in the Democratic ranks, the growing odds of retaining control of the Senate. The most optimistic scenario gives them 54 seats. Small consolation considering that the Republican House can block Senate initiatives. 

President Biden may be chomping at the bit as he weighs his options for the 2024 presidential election. If you want to be in the thick of the action on November 8, keep an eye out for Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Carolina North, Wisconsin and Ohio.

And what about us?

By us I mean Canadians, but especially those who cherish democracy. Hundreds of Republican candidates are still fueling the 2020 election theft lie and a few legislatures are hard at work changing the rules in their favor for 2024.

For the Canadian and Quebec governments, it should not overlook the complexity of relations with the representatives and governors who support the return of Donald Trump. If we sometimes fear Democratic protectionism, the unpredictability and authoritarian drift of the Trumpists are a game-changer. 

On the international scene, our affinities with the current administration are obvious and we should hope for continuity .

Republican wave on the horizon