Edition of Fox News tried to find out whether there is a chance that with increasing temperature the spread of coronavirus to slow down, as occurs with other respiratory viruses, including influenza.
A new study has shown that coronavirus does not spread as efficiently in warmer and humid regions of the world, as in colder areas. Although early analysis published in the journal Social Science Research Network, is still under consideration, it gives an idea of what to expect in the warmer months.
Scientists from mit, has analyzed the global cases of the disease caused by a virus 2019-nCoV, and found that 90% of infections occurred in regions with temperatures between of 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit (3 to 17 degrees Celsius) and an absolute humidity of 4 to 9 grams per cubic meter. The absolute humidity is determined by the amount of moisture in the air, regardless of temperature.
In countries with average temperatures in excess of 64.4°F (18°C) and an absolute humidity of 9 g/m3 number of cases of infection with coronavirus is less than 6% of the total number of cases in the world.
This suggests that “the level of transmission of the virus below in a warm and humid climate,” the authors write.
Humidity can play a special role here, given that most of the infections 2019-nCoV occurred in regions of the world with relatively low humidity.
But this does not mean that with the onset of summer there will be no need for social distancing, and people will once again gather in bars and at concerts.
The study’s authors write that much of North America and Europe, the influence of humidity on the spread of coronavirus to be minor until June when the humidity level exceeds 9 g/m3. However, given that in regions with an average temperature of 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) after 15 March was more than 10 000 cases COVID-19, the role of increasing temperature of the air in slowing the spread of the virus can be significant only at much higher temperatures.
“So the effects of temperature rise will be limited, at least for the countries of Northern Europe and the Northern United States, which is not observed a considerable increase of temperature,” the researchers write.
Thus, the chances of reducing the spread COVID-19 because of these natural factors will be limited in these regions.
“I think at the moment it is unreasonable to expect that the virus will disappear with the advent of letaw,” said Dr. William Shaffner, a specialist in infectious diseases Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.
The spread of some respiratory viruses (including influenza) decreases at high humidity and high temperatures. However, scientists have not fully understood why the temperature and humidity strongly affect the flu and other seasonal viruses.
“If we are under a microscope and looked at this virus, we would find that it is surrounded by a microscopic sphere of moisture, called the drop,” explained Shaffner.
“When the humidity is low in winter, the droplet tends to evaporate. Because of this, the virus becomes easier, and may hang in the air for a longer period of time, because gravity acts on it is much weaker, said Shaffner. But in the summer when you exhale the viral particle, the droplet does not evaporate, and gravity is much faster, removes the virus from the air. In other words, the particle does not float in the air for as long as the winter, reducing the chance of infection.”
In summer, the incidence of influenza is reduced to a very low level, so we usually don’t have much to worry about it during the warmer months. However, according to Shaffner, “we can’t count on warm and humid months to slow the spread of the virus”.
As reported ForumDaily:
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Katrine Johns has been a reporter on the news desk since 2013. Before that she wrote about young adolescence and family dynamics for Styles and was the legal affairs correspondent for the Metro desk. Before joining The Gal Post, Katrine Johns worked as a staff writer at the Village Voice and a freelancer for Newsday, The Wall Street Journal, GQ and Mirabella. To get in touch, contact me through my firstname.lastname@example.org 1-800-268-7128