MISE À DAY
Eleven days before the vote, two small movements are perceptible in voting intentions.
The first is the slight rise in the PQ, confirmed from poll to poll, attributable to the remarkable campaign led by its leader and the fear of his disappearance.
The second is the slippage of the CAQ, also modest. Nothing to panic about, but undeniable.
I'm not the first to say it: the Prime Minister is not running a good campaign.< /p>
He seems gruff, grumpy, spends his time reframing his remarks from the day before, and his obstinacy in wanting to build a pharaonic tunnel without scientific lighting defies common sense.
But he doesn't It's not just the mood of the Prime Minister that explains the failures of the CAQ campaign.
I say this as nicely as possible: the majority of voters have very little political knowledge.
So you need to give them a simple, clear, positive and convincing reason to vote for you.
The CAQ does not succeed.
So far, the CAQ has given two reasons to vote for it.
First, she says: other parties are worse than us and cannot be trusted to govern.
The problem is that, since the voters know that the victory of the CAQ is assured, they can indulge themselves and vote according to their hearts.
Then she says: we held the fort as best we could during a difficult time.
The problem is that people hardly vote by the past.
To be more precise, they vote by the past if they want you punish.
But if they are generally satisfied, that's a given. Gratitude does not exist in politics.
So you have to say what you will do in the future, draw where you want to go.
The CAQ hasn't said anything convincing about this.
We're still waiting that she explains the deep meaning she wants to give to her second term.
Directing it, François Legault tries to bring the spotlight back to the economy by invoking inflation and interest rates. interest.
The problem is that there is not much a provincial government can do about it.
Another problem is that there are not so many other themes to mobilize.
Education? Children don't vote and too many parents don't care.
Immigration? M. Legault gets angry every time he raises the subject.
New powers for Quebec? The CAQ is more and more reminiscent of the PLQ on this: we don't ask for anything because we know we won't get anything.
The CAQ certainly tried to turn the campaign into a two-way fight: it's us or QS.
That doesn't work either, because too many Quebecers simply can't imagine QS, which is stagnating in the polls, as a possible government in waiting.
The CAQ therefore risks dragging itself to the finish line and having a less brilliant victory than desired.
And that draws a difficult second term.