In the new decade we are waiting for the weakening of the monetary system, the boom of cryptocurrencies and drones, sunset plastic money, conflict of generations, the demand for philosophers. What else? DW offers to get acquainted with the analytical prediction from Deutsche Bank.
“If 2010 years taught us, it’s that you cannot follow the trends of the past ten years in assessing the prospects for the upcoming decades”, — said in the Preface to the book of predictions “the World in 2030”, published in late January by the Analytical center of Deutsche Bank (DB Research) in Frankfurt am main.
The weakening world currencies, not backed by gold
Making such a conclusion, multinational team of analysts set out to give simple extrapolating existing trends into the future and present “unusual ideas” about possible upcoming turns in the socio-political and economic development of the planet. It turned out set out on pages 80 24 forecast, although it is actually even more, as each article contains a number of predictions or assumptions.
Since the compilation worked Bank analysts, it is quite natural that several articles relate to the financial and monetary sphere. The first prediction in the book reads: by the end of 2020-ies can “permanently weaken” the forces that support the current world monetary system based on fiduciary or Fiat money.
It’s not backed by gold or silver money, the value of which is determined solely by faith in the ability of the issuing States and Central banks to guarantee their value, protect them from depreciation during inflation. However, the accumulated States worldwide record debt undermines trust in the system. Therefore, DB Research predicts that by 2030, growth in demand for “alternative currencies” — gold or cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrency will become a “cash of the 21st century”
They dedicated a separate article with a prediction: in this decade there is a mass spread of cryptocurrency, which will cease to be just an addition to the existing currencies and eventually will turn into “cash of the 21st century.”
The main barriers to virtual money raise regulators, but this may change. Crucial will be the position of the two most populated countries — China and India. Their governments, according to the article, just now beginning to reconsider their negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
Modern society is moving toward cashless payments, noted in another article, but to disappear soon, this is the forecast, not just cash, but plastic. Due to the rapid development and growing popularity of payment systems using smartphones, which is clearly seen on the example of China, credit cards will be simply unnecessary, whereas the circulation of banknotes and coins for various reasons will continue.
The decade of electric cars, but not Autonomous driving
Several articles about technological trends. So, DB Research predicts over the next decade the rapid spread of electric vehicles, but not Autonomous driving. Unmanned technology, “despite the current hype”, time to 2030 to overcome many of the obstacles to successful commercialization. At the same time, cars that run on electricity will be in 2020-ies fifth of global sales of passenger cars, and by 2040 half.
By about 2030, may even be the age-old dream of flying cars, allow the experts at Deutsche Bank. But what they are quite sure we will have a boom of commercial drones, so that by the end of the decade, in heaven one only the United States can rise to 6.5 million drones.
This technology gives rise to certain legal problems, but as soon as society convinced of its obvious advantages (for example, unloading of highways or Express delivery of drugs), it will require state support drones.
Artificial intelligence needs assistants in issues of morality
In several articles predicts different effects from the development of “the largest technology 2020 years” — artificial intelligence (AI). Perhaps the most surprising prediction: the increasingly widespread introduction of this technology will generate increased demand for graduates of linguistic faculties. Reason: “amazing weakness of the AI when making ethical decisions.”
In DB Research are convinced that “the biggest challenge in the further development of AI will be the task to give answers to moral questions are impossible to answer, and thus take into account the different moral and cultural norms.”
Therefore, business, and legislators need the Humanities — specialists with a philosophical education and mindset, and the ability to feel the subtle linguistic and cultural nuances.
Strengthening populist doubts about the European Union and the conflict of generations
The book “the World in 2030” contains, of course, and a number of socio-political forecasts. The authors critically point out that few people managed to predict the key trends of the past decade: contractio globalization and migration, and the revival of the ideas of the nation state. Although now, looking back, clearly visible their precursors.
In the article “the Changing political trends that we will promochem” lists yet underestimated extent in the new decade, at least in democratic industrial countries, to decide the outcome of elections. This is, firstly, the high cost of real estate and lack of affordable housing that pushes youth into the hands of populist politicians who promise to tax the rich, take control of housing prices or even nationalize.
A second underrated topic in the article is called the falling trust of citizens to the European Union and its institutions. This may lead to a further strengthening of the position of skeptics and centrifugal forces in the EU, deepen the split in society and to strengthen separatist tendencies in certain regions. The second is closely connected with the third theme: still poor economic situation in the countries of southern Europe. Strengthening populist, which in Greece and Italy had formed the government, may be “the beginning of a much larger wave.”
But perhaps the most important socio-political topic of the decade, developed countries may, according to DB Research, to be growing conflict between the generations. The ageing of society leads to the fact that among the voters, more and more people of pre-retirement and retirement age, and they support those politicians who promise them generous social benefits to serve their view of life.
The result is growing gap between generations that already indicates, for example, the distribution of votes in the referendum on “Brucite” and the election of the President of the trump. It is impossible to underestimate the rise among the younger generations a sense of alienation from the political process, according to the article, because “they can strike back”.
Strengthen unions and a new type of 6-hour working day
To Express themselves the young people will be able, in particular, through the trade unions, “the return” which DB Research predicts that in another article. But it wouldn’t be the same classic trade unions, representing mainly the industrial workers of the 20th century.
Now hard to unite and promote their demands will be young workers in digital industries, and that digital technology they will use to self-organization, voting, collecting signatures, petitions, or coordinating campaigns.
Another forecast: gradual global strengthening of the position of employees (including due to the increasing in aging societies, the shortage of young skilled workers) can lead to the fact that in 2020-ies will be implemented requirement 6-hour working day, although to enter it is likely to start selectively. Such measures will also benefit employers, since their employees will be less likely to get sick and productivity and customer satisfaction will increase, predicted in the book “the World in 2030”.