‘The country never got into this mess’: what will happen to Israel after the third parliamentary elections

The Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu for the third time in a row failed to achieve a majority in Parliament. The results of the March 2 elections, his Likud party is gaining 36 seats, and for control of the Knesset party (or coalition) needs 61 chair, BBC reports.

'Страна никогда не попадала в такой переплет': что ждет Израиль после третьих парламентских выборов

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The final data of the CEC of Israel promises to publish on March 5.

It was the third parliamentary elections in the country in less than a year, and no intrigue about who someone friend already left.

In the everyday life of the Israeli political observers firmly the concept of “automatic coalition”. It is a party, mandates that in advance can be added to the result of the “Likud” to get the real picture.

Loyal allies Bibi — religious parties, the largest of which is SHAS — all scored 22 seats, and by simple addition it becomes clear that Netanyahu lacked quite a bit- three mandates.

What now?

Normally, after the announcement of the final results of the public vote, the President is Reuven Rivlin, should give the leader of the party with the largest number of votes, the mandate to form a coalition.

During the next four to six weeks between the various political forces negotiations and formed the Alliance.

However, the situation in Israel is far from ordinary. All the possible tandems are known, and to conduct any further negotiations at the level of the parties does not make sense.

In fact, the other side left the left and center left: the party “Kajol-Laban” benny Ganz, bypassed Netanyahu in the last election, but also failed to form a coalition; United Arab list, which will not sit with Bibi at the same table because of his tough stance against the Palestinians and the “labor-Gesher”, headed by a staunch socialist Amir Peretz.

There is the so-called “Russian” party of Avigdor Lieberman’s “Israel Our home”, which, like Likud, belongs to the right wing of Israeli politics and would be for Bibi the perfect solution, but Lieberman would not want to enter into a coalition with Orthodox religious parties.

Actually, this was the reason that Israel is the third time I was forced to go to the polls.

“In this situation, all that Netanyahu can do is to start looking for deserters — members of other parties, which must either be persuaded to change the ideology and opinions, or to promise them something very powerful — portfolios, for example,” says Israeli political analyst tal Schneider.

It is normal practice, Schneider said, the only problem is that in recent years there was not a single case where it worked.

The threat of the fourth election

According to the estimates of several financial institutes in Israel, the third elections for the 11 months have already cost the economy approximately 10 billion shekels (about $ 3 billion).

Voter turnout on Monday was 71%. Israel is a very high figure, for the last time this activity was observed in 2015 (when the election voted more than 72%).

Experts attribute this to the fact that people are tired of the political crisis.

“The country is in a terrible situation. Parliament was not functioning for a year — a whole year without reforms, no draft laws, no programs. There is no budget. This is disastrous for the internal politics and dangerous for our external security,” said analyst tal Schneider.

'Страна никогда не попадала в такой переплет': что ждет Израиль после третьих парламентских выборов

Benjamin Netanyahu hastened to announce his victory, but to control the Parliament his coalition lacks three seats. Photo: screenshot twitter.com/netanyahu

The expert does not exclude the possibility of a fourth election.

“What other option remains, if Bibi is not going to entice anyone to their side? Perhaps this is the case provided some measures that could be taken by the President and his decree to reverse the situation. But the country never got into this mess, and how it works in the real world — is not clear. So Yes, I do not exclude the possibility of a fourth election, but it would be a disaster,” said Schneider.

According to her, Benjamin Netanyahu got a taste of election campaigns, he likes to be in this mode, and besides, he said, in terms of the impending criminal case is a great way to buy time.

Netanyahu still won?

Benjamin Netanyahu is Prime Minister of Israel, a record four terms and now claim an unprecedented fifth.

In the last election in September 2019 it, although with a minimum gap, but still lost according to the number of votes his main opponent benny Ganz.

Many scientists then talked about the fact that in society there is a serious request for the turnover of power.

But it’s only been a few months, and the advantage back on the side of Bibi.

“Of course, he did not sit idly by. In contrast to Gantz, which has worsened their position, he had the opportunity to play big. It has played a role and the new middle East plan submitted to them along with trump, at least half of Israelis supported the idea of annexation of new territories and sovereignty. And the story of Naama Issachar was the way. Many was impressed with how quickly he resolved the issue with the Russian President, who in Israel are not the most agreeable person,” explains tal Schneider.

According to her, half of Israelis trust Netanyahu regarding the Iranian threat. They believe that at the moment only it can effectively solve the problem.

Such is the specificity of the country: against the background of external and internal security, which Netanyahu quite successfully delivers the Israelites, all the rest recedes into the background.

Therefore, the result of the last election can be considered more of a victory for Netanyahu, despite the fact that he didn’t have enough seats.

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