According to Smoliy, deferred in cooperation with the IMF could negatively affect the exchange rate and public debt.
“Realization of these risks may worsen the exchange rate and inflation expectations and complicate the access to international capital markets in terms of the need to implement a peak of debt payments,” — said resin.
He also called a number of other risks to the economy, among them — the escalation of the conflict in the Donbas, reduction of foreign investment in Ukraine, the introduction of Russia’s new trade sanctions against our country, cooling of world trade and the reduction of grain harvest due to bad weather.
The national Bank expects that in the next few months will sign an agreement on a new cooperation program with the IMF. To do this, Parliament needs to take a number of laws which are a prerequisite for the Fund’s engagement with Ukraine. Among them is a law that does not allow the return of former owners of PrivatBank.
If risks to the economy are not implemented, the national Bank expected the improvement of the economic situation in Ukraine. So, until the end of 2020 inflation in Ukraine will not exceed 5% in annual terms, while foreign exchange reserves will increase to more than $29 billion Under these conditions, the national Bank plans to reduce the discount rate to 7% per annum until the end of 2020. Now the discount rate set at 11% per annum.