In 2020, the global downturn will be 3%, which is much greater than during the crisis in 2009.
This is stated in the forecast of the International monetary Fund (IMF), published on Tuesday, April 14.
Reportedly, this will be the first global recession in 2009, when the global economy contracted by 0.08%.
According to the IMF forecast, the recession in 2020 will be recorded in 157 countries out of 194. The US economy will fall by 5.9%, the Eurozone — by 7.5%, while growth in China slowed to 1.2%.
“We are faced with the cruel reality of exponential growth in infection means that 100 infected people turn into 10,000 within a few days,” wrote in the Foreword to the report, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath.
She noted that the current crisis is not similar to the previous one. The loss of economic output, appears to be superior to those that provoked the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. As in the case of war or political crisis, it is unknown when the pandemic will end. The stimulation of aggregate demand, this time not so important, as the crisis caused by the forced decisions of the authorities to restrict the work of different sectors.
“It is very likely that this year the world economy will experience the deepest recession since the great depression [1929-1933],” said Gopinath, adding that the crisis of 2020 could be called “the great withdrawal” or “Great quarantine.”
At the same time in 2021, according to the IMF, the world economy will grow by 5.8%, quickly recovering from the pandemic. It will record economic growth in the world, at least since 1980.