The most vulnerable coastal city in the world: what will happen to Miami by 2040

In the next two decades sea level rise, storm surges and strong winds can be more damaging to Florida than any period in its history, and will destroy the economy of the state in the amount of $ 1 trillion, according to a new report, which cites Scientific American. Primarily affected the coastline of Miami named the most vulnerable coastal city in the world.

Самый уязвимый прибрежный город в мире: что произойдет с Майами к 2040 году

Photo: Depositphotos

A new study by the economic analytical center Resources for the Future (RFF) indicates that “100-year floods” may now occur every few years, and not once in a century, in many places, endangering an additional 300 000 homes, 2500 miles of roads, 30 schools and 4 hospitals.

In addition, Miami called “the most vulnerable major coastal city in the world” because of the risk of dangerous winds, storm surges, coastal flooding and sea level rise.

“A huge number of people will feel the direct climate impact in my life. It’s very, very important, and that shows why government policy now needs to begin to reduce risks,” said Daniel Raymi, senior researcher at RFF and Professor of School of public policy studies. Gerald R. Ford at the University of Michigan.

The results presented in the 70-page, rich graphics report is based on the work of the Laboratory of climate impacts consortium scientists, economists and other experts involved in measuring the real costs of global climate change. Impact projections based on three different climate scenarios — “moderate”, “more high” and “extreme” associated with future greenhouse gas emissions.

The report also discusses various policy prescriptions that will help to reduce these risks, including the mechanisms for setting prices on carbon, which will help move the United States with carbon-intensive energy and transport fuels to cleaner alternatives.

“Addressing climate change requires initial expenses, said Raymi and co-authors of the report Amelia Keyes and Cora Kingdon. But what if this task failed? Then the costs are likely to be much larger and prolonged.”

The consequences of unchecked climate change will be widespread in Florida and its major cities will carry a heavier burden because of their high population and population density.

For example, in the Miami-Dade County and the region of Tampa Bay will be felt the most severe effects of sea level rise, which are predicted by 2040, will rise from 8 to 12 inches (20-30). Almost half a million Floridians live less than 3 feet (91 cm) above. Experts said that the region of possible regular floods, threatening real estate worth $ 145 billion.

Representatives of RFF argue that some parts of the Florida Keys, already facing chronic flooding from the tides and small storms can be neglected. Florida Panhandle, an area long considered less vulnerable to climate warming, actually will face the same consequences as other regions, said Raymi.

“Several major tourist attractions, including the Everglades, Biscayne national Park and Miami beach are mostly located on the ground less than three feet above the mark of high water level and can permanently submerged by the end of the century”, — stated in the message RFF.

The analysis also examines climate change and mortality in Florida. In a scenario moderate emissions the consequences of climate change may cause increase of 3.8 deaths per 100,000 Florida residents per year, or about 1,000 additional deaths per year by 2035.

Raymi said that Florida has taken significant steps under the leadership of Governor Ron DeSantis to prepare staff to changing conditions, but the magnitude of the risks of climate change will require national and even international policies to avoid the worst consequences.

He said that most of the reductions in greenhouse gases in the state since 2000 was due to market efforts, including the transition from coal to natural gas utility companies.

Even if carbon emissions quickly decline after 2020, experts say that such States as Florida, will still face the consequences of stronger hurricanes, sea level rise and other changes associated with the existing high levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

“Climate change is not a black and white situation. It’s not an asteroid falling on Earth, said Raymi. But we know that we should expect serious consequences. It is important to know where we are vulnerable, you can do this with carbon click’s carbon calculator, so we can make informed decisions.”




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