The national Bank predicts that in the II quarter of the year in Ukraine there will be drop in gross domestic product to 11 %.
He reports about it on its website.
“The greatest shock, the Ukrainian economy will experience in the second quarter of 2020. According to the forecast, the NBU, in April-June the economy will shrink by 11 % year on year”, — stated on the website.
The national Bank informs that due to the introduction of quarantine to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection decreased the level of business activity, employment and consumption of the population of Ukraine. He also notes the decrease in global demand, which negatively affected the export opportunities of the country.
The national Bank gave the forecast that a gradual withdrawal of Ukraine from the quarantine will lead to the “resurrection” of the economy in the second half of the year, which will contribute to the easing of monetary and fiscal policies. The negative impact of coronavirus pandemic on the economy will decrease due to the increase in government spending to combat the financial crisis and the adoption of measures by the NBU to maintain the banking system.
It is reported that from the action of the quarantine restrictions will be hardest hit retail, services and transport sector. After the lifting of the quarantine, they will begin to recover, but not quickly due to the gradual recovery of incomes of the population.
The national Bank also reports that the decline in export demand will have a negative impact on metallurgy, but because of deteriorating weather conditions reduced the volume of grain harvest.