The probability of a powerful earthquake in San Francisco exceeded all expectations

July 4th in southern California, an earthquake of magnitude 6.4. Shook near the town of Ridgecrest, about 75 miles (120 km) East of Bakersfield. A few hours later in the same area, an earthquake magnitude of 7.1 points.

Вероятность мощнейшего землетрясения в Сан-Франциско превзошла все ожидания

Photo: Depositphotos

And that’s not all — the US Geological survey (USGS) has warned that next week the probability of “one or more aftershocks in excess of magnitude of 7.1” equal to two percent. In the same report there is a clarification that “no one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake.”

However, seismologists can predict the General probability of earthquakes, based on existing data and other recent earthquakes.

After the earthquake of July 4, a seismologist from Caltech, Lucy Jones, said: “the Likelihood of a strong earthquake in the same area for one or several days is about 20%”.

The earthquake occurred a few hours after the tremors of a magnitude of 6.4.

What does this mean for the Bay Area? Only what for years was warned by the seismologists. And it still sounds plausible: the coming “great earthquake”.

According to the fact sheet from the USGS , published for the first time in 2014, and then updated in 2016, there is a 72% probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 in the period from 2014 to 2043 in the Bay area of San Francisco.

Of the five major fault lines that cover the region, seismologists expect a 33 percent chance that the Hayward fault, which runs under Berkeley and Oakland, will disappear in this period.

The closest Calaveras fault, which extends into Danville and San Ramon, following the most dangerous. The probability of seismic activity there is 26%. Fault San Andreas fault has a 22 percent chance, the fault Konkort — 16 percent, and the fault, the San Gregorio – 6%.

There is also a 13-percent likelihood that smaller and less noteworthy cracks, including those that have yet to find, can be a major.

Even after a small tremor take a few simple steps, such as:

  • Prepare an emergency kit during an earthquake. If you have already assembled kit, make sure it is not damaged, and the individual components do not require replacement.
  • Develop a plan for emergency communication with loved ones. California Academy of Sciences warns: don’t rely on cell phones or other devices that need electricity. Develop a plan for reuniting after the disaster in case family members are separated from each other during an earthquake without the help of these funds.
  • Learn how to react during an earthquake. The leadership of the Department of homeland security on disasters says: “If you are in the car, stop. If you’re in bed, stay there. If outside, remain outside. Don’t hide in the doorway. Do not run into the street.” The best thing to do is be in the nearest available shelter and cover your head and neck until, until will not stop the tremor.

As previously wrote ForumDaily:

  • What happens if a strong earthquake strike the Los Angeles and San Francisco.
  • July 4, 2019 in southern California recorded tremors of magnitude 6.6. The epicenter was located 18 kilometers North-East of the city of Ridgecrest, the center lies at a depth of 8.7 kilometer.
  • The fifth of July in southern California there were hundreds of weaker aftershocks — aftershocks. The strength of most of them was in the range of 2 to 3 points, some in the range of 3 to 4 points.
  • It turned out that the early warning system, launched earlier this year as part of the pilot program has not warned residents of Los Angeles about a strong earthquake.
  • The evening of July 5 in southern California, an earthquake of magnitude of 7.1, the most powerful in the last 20 years. Tremors were registered in 20:19 local time. The epicenter was located 193 kilometers North of Los Angeles, his focus lies at a depth of ten kilometers.
  • Fires, destruction, injury — such were the consequences of the second day of a massive earthquake in California.