Pandemic coronavirus, mass protests in the US over the killing of George Floyd, continuing the intrigue on the eve of the American elections… it seems that in the world there is a series of completely unpredictable events that can change the course of history. However, the Professor of applied analysis of international problems at MGIMO, member of the Council on foreign and defense policy of Russia Andrey Bezrukov sure what is happening today was predictable, and even now it is possible to predict the future.
Photo courtesy of Andrey Bezrukov
Forecasting Andrey Bezrukov started even in the United States in the framework of the World Future Society – though under the name of American, canadian-born Donald Howard Heathfield. It was under such a legend Andrew, being the scout-illegal immigrant, together with his wife Yelena Vavilova (Tracey Lee Ann Foley) more than 20 years living abroad, first in Canada and then in USA. The American career of the Russian spy was interrupted by the arrest of FBI exactly 10 years ago. It was then that the betrayal of a former Colonel of the foreign intelligence Service (SVR) of Russia Alexander Poteyev American counter-intelligence has uncovered a network of ten deep cover illegals. As a result, following soon after the arrest exchange, the detainees returned home.
Earlier Yelena Vavilova already told ForumDaily about preparation for illegal exploration, the spy tricks and complexities of a double life. Andrey Bezrukov, in turn, shared his predictions about what will riots in the United States that will affect the outcome of presidential elections and what will the world be in ten years.
The riots and elections
According to Andrey Bezrukov, before the crisis caused by the pandemic and the subsequent riots, the victory of Donald trump for the November election seemed almost inevitable.
According to Andrey Bezrukov, protests against police brutality that started after the murder of an African American George Floyd with the arrest by police of Minneapolis, paradoxically, played into the hands of the Democrats, as given the chance to unify the fractured party.
However, Andrey Bezrukov recognize: in light of recent factors to predict with confidence the result of the presidential election in the USA has become almost impossible.
The new elite
While Bezrukov emphasizes that in contrast to the predictions of many “hot heads” in a full revolution of the November protests will not escalate.
These new elites, as predicted by former intelligence will arise in about ten years, and will be more favorable to Russia.
Photo courtesy of Andrey Bezrukov
The expected surprise of a pandemic
In his book “Russia and the world in 2020. The disturbing contours of the future” Andrey Bezrukov introduced the concept of “big surprise”. However, that hit the whole world pandemic coronavirus he does not consider too a big surprise.
Thus, according to the expert, the coronavirus has seriously changed the world.
The person in history and espionage
Because of its unique biography of Andrei Bezrukov was able to see inside not only American and Russian society and the political elites of both countries. However, in his opinion, the role of personality in history cannot be too overemphasized in any of the systems because any leader or otherwise forced to depend on public queries.
“The leader inherits the problems that are there. He can’t just come out of the context in which is. However, being in this context, it has a fairly wide room for maneuver. Here he can either take the chance or not, and maybe just not see it – it depends on his talent as a leader. However, there are things he must do and can’t ignore. Yes, there is a chance that the leader could dramatically change the history, but even this he does on the basis of already existing assumptions. The rulers are not themselves able to create fundamental factors. In short, the role of personality in history is estimated to be 50/50”, – said Andrey Bezrukov.
According to him, the Russian system is more centralized than the American, and, of course, affects the decision-making process, but the human factor has not been canceled. Similarly, the former spy is sure all the future trends of digitalization and the development of technology the role of “personality” in the intelligence continues to be significant.