The state of the Union address: fact-check claims trump about the economy, unemployment and wages in the United States

February 4, during a speech before Congress, the US President Donald trump said that he saved the shaky economy from collapse and created the greatest era of prosperity in American history, notes USA Today.

Обращение к Конгрессу: факт-чек утверждений Трампа об экономике, безработице и зарплатах в США

Photo frame YouTube video/Guardian News

As the newspaper notes, trump incorrectly characterized the state of the economy under President Obama and overestimated their achievements. In fact, after the great recession of 2007-2009, the economy showed steady growth.

“You saw the continuation of this trend,” says Elise Gould, senior economist at the economic policy Institute left.

Here is a reality check of some statements of trump.

Economy

  • Trump: “the economic downturn is passed. In just three short years, we have destroyed the mentality of the decline of America”.

The facts: Barack Obama has led an economic stimulus, which is credited with helping the country out of recession. The economy grew on average by 2.2% per year during the stay of Obama as President. This is slightly less than an average of 2.5% during the presidency of trump. But trump has initiated a tax cut on $ 1.5 trillion and increase spending to achieve this growth rate, raising growth to almost 3% in 2018. It is expected that in the next two years growth will slow below 2%.

  • Trump: “I’m pleased to announce tonight that our economy is better than ever.”

The facts: on the basis of at least the rate of growth, the broadest indicator of economic performance, it is not. The economy grew by more than 3% in mid-2000 and by more than 4% between 1997 and 2000.

Jobs

  • Trump: “After my election, we have created seven million new jobs.”

Facts: the President believes, including jobs created after his election but before he took office. Since the beginning of his powers at the end of January 2017 was added about 6.7 million jobs. But a preliminary review of the data of the Department of labor reduced this figure by 501 000 to 6.2 million. The final result, it is planned to publish 7 Feb.

For comparison, over the last 35 months of the presidential term Obama had created 8 million jobs. With the unemployment rate, which reached a 50-year low of 3.5%, it is expected that employment growth will slow as companies struggling to find employees.

Unemployment

  • Trump: “Incredibly, the average unemployment rate under my administration is lower than any administration in the history of our country.”

The facts: Yes, but this is partly because the unemployment rate was already low at 4.7%, when trump took office. In the past 35 months under Obama, the rate fell more sharply to 4.7% from 6.7%.

Household welfare

  • Trump: “Since my election, the net labor cost is the bottom half of wage earners increased by 47 percent — three times faster than growth at the top 1%”.

Facts: he’s right, but the lower half still retains a tiny fraction of household wealth is only 1.6%, compared to 1.1% at the time when trump took office, show data from the Federal reserve.

Wages

  • Trump: “After decades of standing in place and falling wage income has grown rapidly — and, surprisingly, it grows faster than for workers with low incomes that after my election, increased wages by 16%. This is a “blue collar”.

The facts: it is difficult to verify this claim, since trump did not specify what he has in mind in speaking about workers with low incomes. But other data show the gap between wages of workers with low incomes. According to Gould, the employees 10 percentile of income average wage grew last year by 5.8% compared to 6.9% of workers in the 90th percentile.

Household income

  • Trump: “Real median household income is currently at the highest level in history”.

The facts: according to Gould and the Bureau of the census, the median family income adjusted for inflation in 2018 reached 63 $ 179, which is only one level below the record high 63 476 USD in 1999.

Jobs in manufacturing

  • Trump: “Companies do not go away; they come back.”

Facts: about 500 000 jobs have been created at the trump, but employment in the past year has stagnated amid trade fight trump with China and sluggish growth abroad.

The trade deficit in the US increased by 18% during the first two years of the Board of trump, which indicates that in the U.S. more jobs declined, came back, says EPI senior economist Robert Scott.

Factory

  • Trump: “Lost 60,000 factories during the previous two administrations, America has gained 12 000 new factories under my control.”

The facts: trump is right about losses. In fact, the US has lost 90 000 factories from 1998 to 2016, Scott said, citing data from the census Bureau. But the latest census data show that the U.S. lost 607 factories in 2017, the first year of the reign of trump, says Scott. According to him, over the past two years no public data.

Different

IN THE UNITED STATES

Donald Trump

Address to the nation

appeal to КонгрессуFacebookVkontakte

bookmark