Towards a new political spectrum?

Towards a new political spectrum?

DAY

Faced with François Legault's staggering lead in voting intentions, it would be tempting to minimize the importance of this election campaign. Doesn't the victory of the CAQ seem assured?

It cannot be said enough how wrong such a conclusion is.

How many politicians have gone to the polls convinced of an overwhelming majority only to see themselves ousted from power or reduced to a minority? Think of Pauline Marois in 2014, Justin Trudeau in 2015 or, conversely, the orange wave in Quebec in 2011.

The list of political reversals at the polls is as long as political history .

Above all, what is at stake in this campaign goes far beyond who will occupy the role of the next premier of Quebec. Equally, if not more important, is the possible realignment of opposing forces.

Fragile Dominance

Certainly, the CAQ dominates the political landscape. First among men, women, 35 and over, French speakers. However, the Léger poll published yesterday confirms it, 58% of voters prefer another political option. The problem is that this alternative is fragmented.

The race for the best 2nd will therefore be just as important. It is not for nothing that Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois has been playing the leader of the official opposition for almost a year. This crown of the prime minister in waiting is the one that all opposition parties objectively covet.

The challenge for the next 36 days will therefore be to see if any of them are able to channel the vote against Legault. And this is a critical issue for the health of our democracy.

Without a strong opposition, arrogance always wins over a government, especially in a second term.

Only a strong opposition can formulate a clear, coherent alternative likely to rally a critical mass of the electorate. It then becomes an essential constraint to the excesses of power. Above all, without this disciplined alternative, the credibility of the democratic game gives way to extremes, its excesses, its deliriums and the cynicism that ensues.

Future

The beauty of election campaigns is that they also have the gift of “making things happen”.

Will the Liberal Party succeed in protecting its Montreal fortress and its few strongholds outside?

Will Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois succeed in giving the screed of economic credibility that Québec solidaire lacks in these times of uncertainty and high cost of living?

Can the Parti Québécois take advantage of the undisputed strength of the CAQ to bring back some of its voters and thus ensure its survival for another electoral cycle?

Can the Conservative Party transcend the anger of its beginnings to echo its vision of an assumed and serious Quebec right?

The answer to each of these questions will determine our political future. It is the traditional federalist-sovereignist axis of the old parties that weighs in the balance. The potential for a left-right rebalancing like Quebec has never seen before.

Moral of the story: the campaign is worth paying attention to. It will be essential to go and vote.

Towards a new political spectrum ?