Trump and Biden: whose victory scientists predict, not just guess the results of the elections in the United States

Trump and Biden? Two University professors from the United States predicted the winner of many previous elections. “Voice of America” addressed to him to find out who, in their opinion, will win the election in 2020.

Трамп или Байден: чью победу прогнозируют ученые, не раз угадавшие результаты выборов в США

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In 2016 almost all pollsters predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton. Almost everything was wrong. But there are two experts who accurately predicted the winner and those of many previous elections.

A history Professor at American University Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted the results of all elections since 1984. Professor of political science stony Brookscole University Helmut Norpoth has developed a model that accurately predicted the results of 25 of 27 elections in the United States since 1912.

Each of them makes its predictions by analyzing different data. Professor Lichtman has identified 13 key issues that relate to such fields as Economics, international policy, the unity of the party, the charisma of the candidate and so on. The answer is “Yes” gives the score to the candidate of the ruling party, the answer is “no” to his opponent.

“If the current occupant of the White house will lose 6 or more points, I predict that he will lose,” says Lichtman.

Professor Norpoth has developed a model that analyzed the results of the presidential elections in the last 100 years. Main factor in his model is the result of the primaries. The candidate who first received a nomination for party elections, will be the next President. But this is not the only factor, said Norpoth.

“I take into account another factor, which I call the movement of the pendulum. It takes into account the political fluctuations over the last 200 years and helps to predict the outcome of the election,” the scientist said.

So, who do predict a victory this year?

“Donald trump loses the election” – according to Lichtman.

“Tramp with a probability of 91% to win the election,” the opinion Norpoth.

Трамп или Байден: чью победу прогнозируют ученые, не раз угадавшие результаты выборов в США

Professor Lichtman (left) and Professor Norpoth (right). Photo: scenes video of “voice of America”

Each of the professors I am confident that his prediction is correct. Lichtman, who is a Democrat, recently put on a victory of trump, but changed its forecast due to pandemic coronavirus and a wave of protests against racial discrimination and police brutality.

“Just a few months ago Donald trump and the Republican party looked almost guaranteed winners. Only 4 of the 13 key issues were against them. Now I predict they lose, they lost 7 points is 2 points more than you need to lose,” says Lichtman.

Norpoth, who is a registered independent expert, thinks that the virus or the protests will affect the result.

“My prediction is unconditional and unwavering, he carved in stone. It is impossible to bend, but in the end it still can break, – said Norpoth. – I give only 9% that is wrong.”

Lichtman notes that two factors can affect the model: foreign intervention in elections and suppress turnout.

“The Republican base is white older men like me, ‘ he says. – This part of the electorate is shrinking the fastest. The Republicans have nowhere to take a new senior men. But they can try to suppress turnout among minorities and young people, who are mostly supporters of the Democrats. And it bothers me”.

Lichtman and Norpoth say don’t pay attention to polls.

“We live in an era of great social sensitivity, – said Norpoth. – Maybe some people hesitate to admit during the interview that the support of Donald trump, because it sounds bad and will be bad perceived by other people.”

At the moment it is possible to predict is that one: in November, the forecast either of these two professors will be realized.



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