Ukraine: Moscow ready to press on the divisions of European opinions

Ukraine: Moscow ready to press the divisions of European opinions


Russia's informational influence apparatus is in full working order to exploit the coming divisions in European public opinion over support for Ukraine, according to a study by a US firm published on Thursday . 

The longer the war lasts, “the more likely it is that it will naturally lead to an erosion of support for the Western coalition, caused by war fatigue and lack of enthusiasm for suffering long-term economic effects”, estimates the cabinet. American intelligence specialist, Recorded Future.

And “it is almost certain that Russian information operations will try to exploit this opportunity even more to turn international opinion in their favor”, according to this study .

Many observers believe that time is in favor of the Russians, among other things because it will wear down Western support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion launched on February 24. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently insisted on the urgency of ending the conflict before winter.

Recorded Future affirms that Russia is carrying out a series of operations of influence to work on international public opinion from several angles, particularly targeting certain countries.

“Based on observations of Russian influence networks, Recorded Future believes that direct attempts to undermine and divide the Western coalition by creating or exacerbating divisions are primarily aimed at France, Germany, Poland and Turkey” , according to the report.

These operations are launched by a multitude of vectors: Russian state media such as RT, sites suspected of being service cover, such as Southfront, or already known disinformation and propaganda relays, such as the Telegram channel of the close to troll Cyber ​​Front Z, according to the firm.

Taking several examples, he defined five main narratives inciting division: to accentuate the dissatisfaction with the leaders, to blacken the image of the Ukrainian refugees, exploiting economic fears over energy and food, making Ukraine a root of Nazism and fascism, and discrediting Western media.

Russia has in the past been accused of several times by governments and observers to exploit social networks in order to disrupt or parasitize Western societies, as during the 2016 American elections for example.

Faced with a war in Ukraine which would be part of the duration and an organized Russia Thus, “a global response from all actors will be necessary to effectively identify, isolate, inform, and counter direct and indirect attempts by Russia,” says Recorded Future.